Is Springer Nature sacrificing scientific truth to political ideology?

January 7, 2026

I just saw an article by the chemistry professor Anna Krylov from October 2025 where she explains why she refused to review an article for a journal belonging to the Nature publishing group and more generally communicated to them that she will not cooperate with them in the future, unless they change their policies. The reason is that there are grounds to believe that they are sacrificing truth to political ideology. In this way they are undermining science and truth. She gives three examples to support this view. The first is that reviewers are to be selected ‘with diversity in mind’. In other words, at this point the criterion of competence is being replaced by one of identity politics. The second is so-called ‘citation justice’. This means that the criterion for citing a paper is not its relevance but biological and social characteristics of the authors. It suggests replacing criteria in science like ‘is it true’ or ‘is it interesting’ by ‘who said it’. The third is that results of research work should be suppressed if they are potentially harmful to certain groups, whatever harmful means.

I am very conscious that the influence of truth and science in society is declining but I was shocked to see that this process has affected science itself to such an extent. I suppose that I did not notice this directly since my field, mathematics, is presumably one of the least affected. The problems pointed out by Krylov do not apply equally to all journals. Despite this, since my most recent article appeared in a journal belonging to the Nature publishing group, I feel I have to pay more attention to this type of issue in the future. When I started publishing scientific papers there was no reason to doubt the integrity of any well-known publisher. The choice of a journal to publish in was based on the quality of the scientific content alone. More recently it has become necessary to more careful due to harmful economic influences and the rise of predatory publishing. Now we have an additional factor, where the quality of the scientific literature is under attack not only due to monetary influences but also due to political ideology.

On Democracies and Death Cults by Douglas Murray

November 27, 2025

I have just read the book ‘On Democracies and Death Cults’ by Douglas Murray. It is one of the most rewarding reads I have had for a long time and it has my highest recommendation. In recent months I have thought a lot about what is happening in Gaza and Israel but I was missing a lot of background information. I am now much better informed due to reading Murray’s book. One part of the new things I have learned concerns what has happened in Israel and Gaza in the aftermath of 7.10.2023 and this is based on Murray’s extensive research on the ground which in part was done a very short time after the attack on Israel took place. The other part consists of historical information about the conflict between Israel and its neighbours.

A starting point for the book is that while the attack on Israel took place on 7.10 there was already an anti-Israel demonstration in Times Square on 8.10. Murray was there and taking photos. This was at a time when the rape and murder in Israel was still going on. Similar events were observed in other Western countries including Germany, France and Canada. They were out of control of the police. A theme which is central to the book is the paradoxical nature of the reactions to the attack on Israel in the Western world. Instead of the natural reaction of solidarity with Israel there was condemnation of Israel, a particularly blatant example of victim blaming. There was not a single protest against Hamas. All this can be seen as symbolic of a wider trend with Israel playing the role of the Western world. At present many people in the Western world who are publicly visible (such as politicians, intellectuals and journalists) tend to condemn the Western world, its traditions and culture. At the same time they generously pardon the crimes of its enemies to the point of even acting to prevent people from talking about those crimes and their perpetrators by any means possible. Murray feared that people would deny the atrocities that had happened in the attack and he travelled to Israel (and to Gaza) as soon as possible so as to document the events. He was able to view the famous compilation of videos showing the horror of the attack. He was struck by the fact that the terrorists appeared to be enjoying what they were doing and to be proud of it. One of them contacted his parents via WhatsApp and sent them pictures of about ten people he had killed with his own hands. His parents were delighted. Murray quotes the journalist, publisher and diplomat George Weidenfeld as stating that there are people who are worse antisemites than the Nazis. While the Nazis tried to hide their worst crimes from outside observers Hamas publicised their crimes as much as possible. To try to understand this phenomenon better Murray talked to many people, including survivors of the attack, families of those killed and those kidnapped to Gaza, members of the Israeli security forces and Israeli politicians including Benjamin Netanjahu.

Murray explains how the takeover of Iran by Ayatollah Khomeini is at the root of many of the present problems in the Middle East. The enemies surrounding Israel are now like the tentacles of the Iranian regime. The change of government in Iran was praised by many left-wing intellectuals in the West, including Michel Foucault. There may be an exceptional concentration of evil in Hamas but they could not have acted as they have done without weapons, training and other support from Iran. The question of how the disaster of 7.10 could have happened is not one which is answered in the book. However there is one suggestion of something which could have been an important contributing factor: hubris. Israel was known to others and to itself as being a master of defending itself and it seems that the Israeli authorities thought that they had Gaza completely under control, which turned out to be a grave error. A feature of the relations between Israel and Gaza has been the exchanges of huge numbers of Palestinians who were in Israeli prisons (of whom many had committed terrible crimes) for a few hostages. In this context Israel is the perfect target for blackmail. I learned from the book that Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the attack on 7.10, was one of more than a thousand Palestinians released in return for just one soldier who had been a hostage. While in prison a doctor discovered that Sinwar was suffering from a brain tumour. He was treated for this in an Israeli hospital. On 7.10 several relatives of that doctor were killed or kidnapped. One of them was an 85 year old holocaust survivor, Yaffa Adar, who had been in the Warsaw Ghetto. She was taken to Gaza and held for 49 days before being released.

Murray was shown around the village of Nir Oz where of about 400 inhabitants about 100 were killed or kidnapped and was told the stories of what had happened to them. There was for instance Bracha Levinson, 74 years old, child of holocaust survivors. The terrorists who came into her house took her cell phone and filmed her murder. Then they took a picture of her lying dead in a pool of blood and uploaded it to her Facebook page so that all her family and friends could see it. Murray visited a bomb shelter where at least 11 Thai workers had been taken and brutally murdered. There was blood everywhere, on the floor, on the walls (including hand prints of the victims) and on the ceiling. He met a young man who had escaped from the Nova festival and who told his story while showing what he had filmed with his phone. He had managed to reach his car but did not dare to drive off. It is important to know that the wave of Hamas terrorists from Gaza was followed by a wave of civilians who went around the scene of the carnage, looting everything they could find. A group of looters was coming closer, going from car to car. Outside the car was another man but he was afraid to get in in case he might be seen. Eventually the group came so close that the man in the car felt he had to drive away, leaving the other man behind. It was possible to escape in the car but the man left behind was lynched by the Palestinians.

One month after the attack on Israel Murray went into Gaza with the IDF. They passed through the hole in the fence where most Gazans had crossed into Israel on the day of the attack. Then they proceeded until they reached the main road from north to south where Gazans were following the Israeli orders to leave the north. Many of them were shot by Hamas to prevent them doing so. Murray saw them queueing up to pass the control post. The fact that he was deep inside Gaza makes his account more authoritative than those of people giving their opinions from Israel or from thousands of miles away from Gaza.

The book discusses the antisemitic activities in Ivy League Universities. This is a development which I had followed on my own from a distance but here I learned some more things. It is discussed how the German left moved from supporting Israel to supporting the ‘Palestinians’. This had to do with always wanting to be on the side of the oppressed. It has parallels with what has happened in the US and elsewhere in the West in the last two years. There is a description of the highjacking of a plane by Germans and Palestinians in 1976. The hostages were separated by the Germans into Jews, who were to be held, and non-Jews, who were to be released. The criterion was not being Israeli but being Jewish. One of the hostages showed the terrorists the number tattooed on his arm which showed that he had been in a concentration camp. He told them in German that he thought that something had changed in Germany since the time of the Nazis but that he suspected from the behaviour of these people that he had been mistaken. There is a discussion of antisemitism which contains two interesting quotes. The first, due to Vasily Grossman, is ‘Tell me what you accuse the Jews of – I’ll tell you what you’re guilty of’. The second is an adaptation of this to the present, due to Murray, ‘Tell me what you accuse the Jews of – I’ll tell you what you believe you are guilty of.

Murray talks about how impressed he was by some young women he met in Israel. One of them, nineteen years old, was an army recruit and was helping in an operation to collect the last human remains from vehicles which had been destroyed in the attack on the Nova Festival. Another, twenty-three years old, was working as an intelligence expert on Yemen. He was very impressed by these and other young women he met and contrasted them with women of the same age he had met in other Western countries and who often seemed to him like spoiled children. Being in a war can sometimes bring out the best in people. It is easy to see parallels between the Nazis and Hamas but it is not so well known that there is a direct connection. This connection is explained in the book. The Grand Mufti of Jerusalem was an ally of Hitler and collaborated with him in the annihilation of Jews. The Mufti was the one war criminal of the Second World War of this caliber who was able to live openly and without being brought to trial after the war. He was given a warm welcome in his home country of Egypt and praised in the highest terms by the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, an organisation of which Hamas is one of the descendants.

Murray visited some of the Palestinians who had been taken prisoner during the attack on 7.10. He was able to see them in their cells. He recognised some of them as the killers he had seen in the horrific videos. They looked surprisingly like normal human beings. When Sinwar was finally killed Murray heard about it and immediately travelled to the place in Rafah where it had happened. When Sinwar was shot (by a nineteen year old soldier) without his identity being known he was able to escape, badly wounded, into a building and sit in an armchair. There he bled to death. Murray saw the traces of blood Sinwar had left during his escape and sat in the bloodstained chair where his life had ended. He looked out at the ruins of Rafah and speculated about what thoughts might have gone through Sinwar’s mind as he sat there.

This book reports on many horrors but the author found something positive at the end. He was encouraged by seeing the heroism of young men and women in Israel who had risen to the occasion and shown what is possible. Anyone interested in Gaza should read this book.

Catch bonds and T cell activation

November 17, 2025

A frequent approach to studying T cell activation is based on the idea that properties of the chemical binding of the T cell receptor to an antigen determine whether the cell is activated or not. This applies in particular to the work I have written about here and here. An alternative idea is that mechanical properties also play a role in this process. We have studied this in a new preprint with Yogesh Bali and Wolfgang Quapp. What happens when two molecules are chemically (non-covalently) bound and we apply a force which tends to pull them apart? A simple scenario would be to assume that the greater the force the greater the chance the bond will break. This is what is called a slip bond. However there is also another possibility. It may be that in a certain range the applied force actually stabilises the bond. This is what is called a catch bond. It is related to what is called a Chinese finger trap. This is a toy with the following property. If you push a finger into it it is difficult to get it out again and pulling harder only makes it worse. The way to escape is to push instead of pull.

In this work we study a model with two mechanical degrees of freedom which are the extension of the bond between T cell and the pMHC and the angle between the T cell receptor and the cell membrane. The dynamics is described by a potential depending on these two variables. Stable and unstable bonds correspond to minima and saddle points of this potential. The potential depends on a constant external force as a parameter and varying this parameter leads to bifurcations. In the paper this behaviour is studied while trying to incorporate as much experimental data as possible related to this system.

The mystery of thermodynamics

October 14, 2025

I have recently been reading the book ‘Foundations of Chemical Reaction Network Theory’ by Martin Feinberg. In the past I have spent a lot of time studying Feinberg’s classic lecture notes on Chemical Reaction Network Theory and I have read (parts of) many of his papers. Thus many things in the book are familiar to me. However there are also many things which are not and I feel that I am profiting a lot from reading it. One subject which plays a marginal role in most of Feinberg’s writings is thermodynamics and the related concept of detailed balancing. This is different in the book since there are two chapters (Chapter 13 and Chapter 14) devoted to these topics. On p. 274 we read ‘The mathematical foundations of thermodynamics remain somewhat murky, at least to me.’ My response to this statement is ‘me too’. In fact I have often experienced that mathematically inclined people say that they never understood thermodynamics. My own difficulties with the subject influenced my career. As a student I was irritated by the equation \frac{\partial V}{\partial T}\frac{\partial T}{\partial P} \frac{\partial P}{\partial V}=-1. When I asked the lecturer who was teaching us a course on thermodynamics he was not able to give me an explanation which I found satisfactory. As a schoolboy physics was the subject which interested me most. After my second year at university I had to decide between doing a degree in physics, a degree in mathematics or a joint degree in both. My decision for the second alternative was strongly influenced by that thermodynamics conundrum. Another experience which contributed to my decision was that at one time I happened to have two courses on the same topic, Fourier series, in the same term, one in physics and one in mathematics. The second was quite transparent to me, the first obscure. The fact that I had
a more positive experience with mathematics than with physics as a student probably had to do with the fact that the relative quality of the lecturers in mathematics was better. At the same time it has to with the nature of the subjects themselves. To come back to Feinberg’s book, on p. 281 he writes ‘When I was an undergraduate student, classical thermodynamics appeared to be a beautiful (and somewhat kabbalistic) subject, but its purpose was not clear. … I didn’t really understand what was happening.’ Feinberg and many other people seem to have made peace with thermodynamics although remaining with an uneasy feeling. This does not apply to me. Perhaps it is an aesthetic thing: Feinberg found the subject ‘beautiful’, even as a student, while I must say that I experienced it as ugly.

Thermodynamics is a part of physics which seems to be difficult to relate to rigorous mathematics. In this sense it bears a resemblance to the much more prominent example of quantum field theory. What does the word thermodynamics mean to me? I want to try to answer this question without reading what anyone else says about the subject. (I can do that later, if desired.) I start with an etymological approach. This indicates that the subject has to do with heat and the way that a system evolves in time. Another approach is a historical approach. I have the impression that a motivation for the subject was understanding the efficiency of steam engines. Yet another approach is to try to make contact to statistical mechanics. A gas is made up of an enormous number of molecules and it is impossible to keep track of them individually. Thus we pass to a statistical description. This involves some probability theory or possibly even quantum mechanics. Getting to thermodynamics involves discarding some information about the system and nevertheless ending up with a description which is to some extent self-contained.

The Malgrange preparation theorem

September 19, 2025

The theorem of the title is about dividing smooth functions by other smooth functions or, in other words, representing a given smooth function in terms of products of other smooth functions. A large part of the account which follows is based on that in the book ‘Normal Forms and Unfoldings for Local Dynamical Systems’ by James Murdock. The functions under consideration are smooth functions on a Euclidean space of dimension n or open subsets thereof. The considerations are local, i.e. whenever necessary the functions will be restricted to arbitrarily small neighbourhoods of the origin. A relatively simple case is n=1. Suppose that f(x)=x^m g(x) for a smooth function g. Then the derivatives f^{(k)}(0) vanish for all k\le m-1. The question whether the converse holds is the simplest example of the type of questions to be considered here. In fact it does hold but the proof is not quite trivial. It is easy to construct an inductive proof once the case m=1 is known. That case can be treated using the fundamental theorem of calculus and a change of variables. This leads to the formula g(x)=\int_0^1 f'(tx)dt.

For n>1 things become more complicated. If f(x,y) is a function of two variables then there is no condition on the derivatives of f at the origin which will ensure the existence of a function g with f(x,y)=xg(x,y). This can be seen by choosing f(x,y)=e^{-y^2}. All derivatives of this function at the origin are zero. However there is no smooth function g with e^{-y^2}=xg(x,y). For setting x=0 in a relation of this form gives a contradiction. There are true analogues of the theorem in one dimension for n>1 but they are not of this form. A simple example is the fact that if f vanishes at the origin there exist smooth functions g_i with f(x)=\sum_{i=1}^n x_ig_i(x). This can be formulated in algebraic language as follows. In the ring of germs of smooth functions at the origin the ideal of functions which vanish at the origin is generated by the monomials x_i. The proof is very similar to that in the one-dimensional case. More generally, if for a given m the function f and all its derivatives up to order m-1 vanish at the origin there exist functions g_k such that f(x)=\sum_{|k|=m}g_k(x)x^k. Here k is a multi-index.

For the statement of the Malgrange preparation theorem it is necessary to single out one of the coordinates, say x_1, to play a special role. It is now assumed that the restriction f(x_1,0,\ldots,0) is divisible by x_1^k, i.e. f(x_1,0,\ldots,0)=x_1^k h(x_1) for a smooth function h. The conclusion is that under this assumption it is possible to multiply f by non-zero function q in such a way that the result is a polynomial of degree k in x_1 with coefficients which are smooth functions of x_2,\ldots,x_n. Another related result is the Mather division theorem. In that case we start with any smooth function g and a function f satisfying the same condition as in the Malgrange preparation theorem. Then there exist smooth functions q and r such that g=fq+r and r is a polynomial of degree k-1 with coefficients which are smooth functions of x_2,\ldots,x_n. The two theorems are equivalent. To get the first from the second take g=t^k in the second and rearrange the result. For the converse first multiply by a positive function to make f equal to t^k. The Malgrange preparation theorem is an analogue for smooth functions of the Weierstrass preparation theorem for analytic functions of complex variables. The big difference is that the analytic theorem includes a uniqueness statement while the smooth one does not. It seems that the Malgrange theorem cannot simply be got by approximating the smooth functions by analytic ones and using the Weierstrass theorem. Instead it is proved by decomposing the Fourier transform using a partition of unity.

If you try to manipulate smooth functions in some ways so as to get new smooth functions then you might have some intuition as to what is allowed and what is not. As a first step it is possible to look for possible obstructions to the truth of the statement on the level of formal power series. When this step has been completed there remains the question of how a proof can be found that the desired construction is allowed. The Malgrange preparation theorem is a tool which may help in finding such a proof.

Talk by Marisa Eisenberg at the SMB annual conference

July 16, 2025

At the moment I am attending the annual meeting of the Society for Mathematical Biology in Edmonton. Yesterday I heard a talk of Marisa Eisenberg which was partly about public health and partly about fundamental issues of mathematical modelling. I found both aspects of her talk interesting and also the connection between them. The speaker is Professor at the School of Public Health at the University of Michigan and Director of MICOM (Michigan Public Health Integrated Center for Outbreak Analytics and Modelling). She allowed herself an ironic comment on this acronym. In the context of this position she has had a lot of interactions with public health officials of the state of Michigan. At the beginning they did not appreciate what she had to tell them much. After a lot of talking this changed. Now they really take her input seriously. She emphasized that it can be useful to give these officials the kind of data they ask for even if it might be better to base a decision on other data. She stressed how important it is to make clear to people what modelling cannot do. Her activities have not been limited to the state level. She has also been working on a project to convince people of the value of measles vaccinations at a local level.

Turning to the more theoretical topics, one concept which was central in the talk was that of parameter identifiability. Very often in mathematical biology (and in epidemiology in particular) we have models consisting of a system of ordinary differential equations depending on parameters. Many of the parameters have not been measured directly. We can attempt to determine these parameters for a given application of the model by fitting to experimental data. However it can happen that in examples the parameters cannot even in principle be determined from measured data. Parameter identifiability can be defined as the absence of this problem. This is a subject which I have heard about in several talks in the past years, including some by Nicolette Meshkat. I found the topic interesting on an abstract mathematical level but never took it as seriously as I probably should have done from the point of view of its practical importance. This concept came up in many of the talks I have heard at this conference. Perhaps the time has come to end my relative negligence of this subject.

Sometimes even when the parameters are in principle determined by data the dependence of the data on the parameters is very weak so that identifying the parameters is impracticable. What can we do about this? One possibility mentioned in the talk is that the quantities of interest in the application are independent of the parameters which cannot be determined. Then we can simply ignore the problem without doing any damage. Another issue discussed in the talk was the comparison between mechanistic approaches and the use of artificial intelligence. A disadvantage of AI in epidemiology us that it needs a lot of training data and at the beginning of an epidemic not much data is available. An alternative put forward by the speaker is as follows. To understand a particular disease first produce a number of different mathematical models. Then use simulations of these models to produce data for AI. This could help to give AI a head start and partly overcome one of its biggest disadvantages in this context.

A Bluethroat near Worms

June 22, 2025

For some time I had had the wish to see a Bluethroat in Germany. As far as I can remember the last time I had seen that species was in 1986. Thus it had been almost forty years. I made trips to various places in Rheinland-Pfalz and Hessen where it was allegedly possible to see Bluethroats but without success. Last Thursday I made a trip to a nature reserve close to Worms where I was finally successful. I saw a Bluethroat and it was an adult male.The place is rather hard to reach without a car. On foot it seems to be necessary to cross a busy road and even to walk along that road a bit, unless you want to climb a steep slope with dense vegetation to reach that road, which is what I did on my way to the place. I saw a number of other interesting birds in the reserve, including Great White Egret, 2 Purple Herons, Gadwall, Marsh Harrier, Lapwing (with young), Stonechat, Garden Warbler, Corn Bunting (close view). I also saw what appeared to be Green Sandpipers. This has a couple of caveats. I cannot rule out the possibility that they were Wood Sandpipers. According to the information I could find it is unusual to find that species at that place at that time but the probability of Wood Sandpipers is even less. In any case, I do not regard the identification as confirmed. A bonus was a beaver. I had never seen one in the wild before. To summarize, my quest for a Bluethroat was successful and I had many other interesting experiences along the way.

The Schauder fixed point theorem and Leray-Schauder theory, part 3

May 22, 2025

In the previous post I should have given an example of an application of the theorem to explain why a statement of this kind should be interesting. I will do so now, following Section 6.9 of the book of Zeidler. The idea is to show the existence of a solution to a boundary value problem for a quasilinear elliptic equation. The system is schematically of the form A(x,u,Du)D^2u=0, where Du and D^2u denote the first and second order derivatives of u, respectively. The boundary condition is an inhomogeneous Dirichlet condition u=g. Now replace u in the lower order terms by another function z to get the equation A(x,z,Dz)D^2u=0. Suppose that this equation has a unique solution for a given function g. Of course it is important to specify appropriate regularity conditions for the coefficients, the boundary, the function g and the solution sought. These are formulated using Hölder spaces. We can define a mapping T between suitable function spaces by z\mapsto u. A solution of the problem we want to solve is then a fixed point of T. Consider now the modified problem where g is replaced by tg. Since the equation which defines T is linear we get a situation as in the theorem with a family of mappings of the form tT. A priori estimates for the elliptic problem then give the bound needed to apply the theorem to this problem and obtain an existence theorem for the boundary value problem for the nonlinear equation.

In the book of Gilbarg and Trudinger we find the theorem with linear dependence on the parameter as Theorem 11.3. The proof given is very similar to that in the book of Zeidler. The more general result where linearity is dropped is Theorem 11.6. Its proof follows a similar pattern to that in the case with linear dependence but is more complicated. In particular the cut-off procedure is more intricate. It uses a variant of the Schauder fixed point theorem (Lemma 11.6 of the book) which I find interesting in itself and which I will therefore reproduce here. Let B=B_1(0) be the open unit ball in a Banach space X and let T be a continuous mapping of \bar B into X such that the image of \bar B has compact closure and the image of the boundary of B is contained in B. Then T has a fixed point. Comparing this with the Brouwer fixed point theorem shows that there is an additional hypothesis beyond compactness. Now the cut-off procedure will be discussed. In fact there is not just one cut-off mapping but a family depending on a parameter \epsilon. They involve both scaling the argument and modifying the parameter. A fixed point is obtained for each \epsilon>0 and then \epsilon is allowed to tend to zero to get a fixed point for the original mapping.

The Schauder fixed point theorem and Leray-Schauder theory, part 2

May 21, 2025

Here I want to sketch the proof of the theorem from Leray-Schauder theory discussed in a previous post. I consider only the restricted case where the parameter dependence is linear and its proof as given in Section 6.8 of the book of Zeidler. We start with a compact mapping T from a Banach space X to itself and consider the parameter-dependent mapping (t,x)\mapsto tT(x). It is supposed that any fixed point of the latter with 0<t<1 satisfies the inequality \|x\|\le r. Now T is replaced by a cut-off operator S which satisfies S(x)=T(x) for \|x\|\le 2r and \|S(x)\|=2r for \|x\|\ge 2r. Let M be the closed ball of radius 2r about the origin. Then S maps M into itself and its restriction to M is compact. Applying the Schauder fixed point theorem shows that S has a fixed point. If \|T(x)\|\le 2r at this point then it is also a fixed point of T and we have the desired conclusion. If instead \|T(x)\|>2r then S(x) is proportional to T(x) with a factor t\in (0,1). Applying the assumption of the theorem we see that the norm of x is no greater than r. At the same time it is greater than 2r, so that we get a contradiction. I may come back to discuss the proof of the more general version of the theorem given by Gilbarg and Trudinger on another occasion.

Backward bifurcations and multistationarity

May 20, 2025

In a previous post I wrote about backward bifurcations in the context of a model of hepatitis C. At that time I believed that this kind of bifurcation was not possible for that model. In recent work with Alexis Nangue we discovered that this belief was not correct. In a new preprint we prove that backward bifurcations do occur in that model. The existence of a backward bifurcation proves that there are parameters where the basic reproductive ratio {\cal R}_0 is less than one and there nevertheless exists a positive steady state. The bifurcation which occurs in the proof is a transcritical bifurcation. Intuitively this means that as a parameter is varied a steady state moves across another steady state which is fixed. There is a sign involved in a bifurcation of this type. One value of the sign corresponds to a backward bifurcation while the other corresponds to the forward bifurcations more familiar in epidemiology. The steady state which arises in a backward bifurcation is unstable. In simulations of models with backward bifurcations it is often seen that the steady state can be continued to larger values of the parameter until it reaches a point where a fold bifurcation takes place. There it changes from unstable to stable. This phenomenon cannot be captured by the analysis of the transcritical bifurcation since in general it occurs far away from the bifurcation point. We have now found an extension of that analysis which allows the fold bifurcation to be treated. The idea is to replace the transcritical bifurcation by one whose codimension is one higher. This is similar to passing from a fold to a cusp. The transcritical bifurcation could be given the intuitive name ‘moving hyperbolic steady state’ and by analogy with this we give the bifurcation studied in the paper the name ‘moving fold’. In this type of bifurcation two positive steady states arise, one stable and one unstable. This is a tool which may be used to prove the existence of more than one positive steady state in epidemiological models. The general theorem we prove applies to both the cases {\cal R}_0<1 and {\cal R}_0>1 but up to now we have only found interesting examples for the first of these cases. Our original model for hepatitis C is one such example. We were not able to decide whether in that example there exist parameters which would allow the second case of the theorem to be applied. We proved the relative statement that if parameters with this property exist there actually exist three positive steady states. An interesting side effect of this work is that we found a limiting case of that model (where two parameters are set to zero) where there can exist a continuum of steady states.


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