Oreshnik Again
by | January 21, 2026 | No Comments
Russia has deployed the Oreshnik system in Belarus and then, from Russia, conducted another Oreshnik test. Jefffrey and Aaron discuss how the open source team found the deployment site in Belarus before Russia announced it, what they think Oreshnik is, and how Russia managed to violate two arms control treaties with one missile. Support …
GUEST POST: IF YOU CAN DODGE A WRENCH: How the PLA Plans to Use Hypersonic Weapons
by | January 13, 2026 | No Comments
Today’s guest post about PLARF Ludicrous Speed Devices is by Jenny Moss [LinkedIn]. Snowboarder, China Analyst, Team Alumnus, in that order. One piece of technology that has enraptured the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), the military branch responsible for China’s entire land and air-based conventional and nuclear missile arsenal, is hypersonic weaponry. Hypersonic weapons …
Guest Post – BAYWATCH: Identifying Signatures of PLA Rocket Force High-Bay Garages
by | January 6, 2026 | No Comments
Happy New Year everybody, this guest post is by Jack Ryan Johnson a Middlebury undergrad and promising Apprentice GEOINT Wizard who spent a long time looking deeply into and on to PLARF garages and then detailed his findings for us. The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), the PLA’s strategic and tactical missile force, is …
Possible Oreshnik Deployment in Belarus
by | December 26, 2025 | 1 Comment
A few days ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that “The relocation of the Oreshnik system to the territory of Belarus is nearing completion. We understand where it will be deployed.” But Zelenskyy didn’t share the location! Jon Landay at Reuters asked me whether the team had any idea where Orehsnik might be headed, so …
A Pod of Dynamite
by ACW Podcast | November 15, 2025
A Return to Nuclear Testing
by ACW Podcast | November 3, 2025
Guest Post - Always Be Casting: An Estimate of Iranian Solid Rocket Motor Production
by Sam Lair | September 29, 2025
A Firstful of Interceptors: ABM Performance During True Promise II
by Sam Lair | September 10, 2025
Pentagon Blocks Ukraine Strikes
by ACW Podcast | September 2, 2025
Ninety Percent Of The Time, The Missile Works Every Time: Iranian Missile Failure Rates During True Promise II
by Sam Lair | August 22, 2025
About
Founded in 2004 by Jeffrey Lewis, Arms Control Wonk was the first blog on arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation. It has since been a home to everything that is "too wonky or obscene" for publication about nuclear weapons. The site now features thirty-plus contributors with an archive of over three thousand articles.
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Russia has deployed the Oreshnik system in Belarus and then, from Russia, conducted another Oreshnik test. Jefffrey and Aaron discuss how the open source team found the deployment site in Belarus before Russia announced it, what they think Oreshnik is, and how Russia managed to violate two arms control treaties with one missile.
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