Countenance Blog

Washington, D.C.

The latest James O’Keefe sting.

One side of me entertained the speculation that the Secret Service was trying to set Trump up to get assassinated.

The other side of me, looking for a more rational explanation, concluded that the Secret Service is so institutionally locked into looking for threats in specific places that the agents were totally blind to guy on sloped roof with rifle. And yes, human beings can be so blind. For instance, let’s say you work at a given job in the same place for ten years, and you live in the same place all that time. For at least 2000 times, (more than that in reality but 2000 is a nice round number), you’ll drive to and from work in the exact same route, and you never have any problems. On the 2001st time, there’s some kid playing in the street right in the route where you drive. You hit him, he dies. It’s not that you didn’t see the kid in the sense that the image didn’t hit your eyes. It’s just that you are such a slave to your own ingrained habits and expectations that you just weren’t expecting a kid to be playing in the middle of the street. (This is the real imperative for self-driving car systems, to fill in the blanks for this kind of human cognitive complacency. On the 2001st time, the car will brake before you can hit the kid.) My rational theory about Butler was that the guy on the roof with the rifle was like the kid playing in the middle of the street.

With this, now I think there’s a middle ground theory: Politically dissenting agents leaking.

Downtown St. Louis

Screenshot from the SLMPD YouTube press conference that was held some time today.

Naturally, the individual who gave the presser gloated about “since 2020” and “lowest since 2013.” Though it makes one want to ask out of common sense what happened in 2014 and 2020 to drive the spikes. Maybe figure those out and learn from them to the point of not repeating.

When 2020’s total tally was known, I predicted just after the start of 2021 (before January 7 hit and I wasn’t cognitively all there for the next two months) that 2020 was a peak and that it would all go downhill from there. The reason I was able to make that prediction, in contrast to what I suppose were others predicting that it would only get worse, is that I knew 2020 was the result of a black murder rate of in the 170s per 100k, or as Steve Sailer calculated, that holding 2020’s black murder rate in St. Louis City constant for all time would mean that a black boy or man would have a 20% chance of being murdered between birth and age 75. Those numbers are anomalously high, even for Bell Curve City. So I knew and predicted that regression to the mean would kick in. I now happen to think that St. Louis City may never have a year as high as 200 homicides ever again. The reason I’m going with that audacious call is because, from what I understand, there are far fewer young black boys on the come up in the city. Mainly as a long track consequence of AFFH. They still exist, but they’re no longer in the city itself. When they get old enough, they’ll start doing serious violent crimes close to wherever they were raised. Meanwhile, St. Louis City itself is becoming more and more the province of homosexuals, young singles, young childless couples and DINKs, plus the old retired black people that are remnants of a more bellcurve-y era.

Your Blogmeister’s Other German Desk

We’re now at the tail end of what I like to call my “getting everything I wanted cost me everything I knew” season of the year. Between December 14 and January 7.

It’s because those few weeks have important personal anniversaries. Proposed on December 14, 2019. Frick and Frack born December 22, 2020, then we bought them home two days later. My sister-in-law and the soyboy-in-law announced that they were expecting on January 6, 2021. Then the very next day, boom, the call from back in St. Louis, the other shoe dropped.

Today being the morbid fifth anniversary, and coming up on it, it has gotten me to thinking about a few things and coming to conclusions, in the sense of enough time has passed that I’ve been able to get the fog out of my eyes and really see and understand things clearly and dispassionately.

Most of it is too personal to write here. I will say these cryptic things here and in public about all that has been on my mind. I might be able to be coaxed into saying more in the comment section, but that’s not a guarantee.

God almighty in heaven above, they weren’t perfect people. And as more and more time since they’ve been gone has passed, it gets me more level headed about their lives, the good, the bad, the perfect, the imperfect. It’s just that you hope that the rightness of what they got right was and is more important than the wrongness of what they got wrong. Whatever they got wrong, and getting something wrong was inevitable because they were human beings, you have to learn from it and use it to teach the next generation. We, no matter the generation, either adapt or die.

Then there’s the more profound and society-wide impactful thing.

My late mother, the dementia, the aging. To a different extent and several years before, my late father.

We, people in general, and medical science, are clearly in an anxious rush to figure out how to extend peoples’ lifespans. As if a higher and higher number is somehow a saintly virtue by itself.

I need to ask this question:

Is modern medicine also working on including physical and cognitive vitality and productiveness to go with those longer lifespans? Is that going to be part of it?

Or is it going to be nothing more than hacking on extra and superfluous years to already difficult and falling apart and disproportionately burdensome old people?

Let me ask the same question another way:

In adding years to peoples’ lives, are we also going to add life to peoples’ years?

That’s not even asking the more fraught and unpopular question of how much we have sacrificed our future on the altar of our past in the general sense of speaking.

We’ve been so preoccupied with “can” that we don’t seem to be thinking about “should.”

I concluded awhile back, tempting fate because of how it almost happened way too soon, that, when it’s my time to go, I hope that it’s a situation where I’ve done everything I practically could and wanted in life within reason and am at peace. And that I just go painlessly in my sleep. I do not want to suffer, and I certainly don’t want to suffer for long if my grand exit is going to have to involve suffering. Most of all, I do not want to be a disproportionate burden either to those immediately around me or to the general society for anything close to an extended period of time.

Caracas

This is close to a carbon copy of Noriega, Panama, 1989. I was twelve years old then, and I’m 48 now, watching pretty much the same thing happen again. Don’t think I’m gonna live to 192 to see the next one.

This was all about removing a Beijing and Moscow ally in the Western hemisphere (Monroe Doctrine), and also a means to de-destabilize the world oil price market so as to hurt Putin’s ability to conquer Ukraine. This should be yet another opaque clue that Trump is and has been pro-Ukraine all along and that any pretense from him otherwise is and has been nothing more than negotiation tactics.

To the question of “should.” (1) I would not have, not in this way. I think the same practical thing would have happened, only without the fraught and unpredictable addition of American military force. (2) However, I am NOT spazzing out that it happened; I doubt that it will spin out of control. María Corina Machado, pro-America and pro-Trump, will probably be the next head of state in Venezuela, installed some way some how.

2024 and 2025 were really interesting years. So I think we’re due for a more boring year. That’s what I think 2026 will be. However, I think a lot will happen this year underneath the surface of the visible news and events cycle that will tell the tale of our civilization’s long term future.

Minneapolis

The vitriol to which American Dems/left/etc and their European counterparts are responding to the Somalian daycare fraud scandal blowing wide open.

(Which, btw, will extend way beyond Somalians, way beyond daycares, and way beyond Minneapolis, mark me)

It reminds me of a saying:

You’re gonna get the heaviest fire when you’re directly over the target.

This fraud therefore must be such an important part of American Democrat left of center political life and its viability that stopping it would be an existential threat to it.  Sort of a second USAID.  

See also:  Here in Germany and Europe.  Where people are already starting to visit certain “businesses” and ask questions.

Paris

Brigitte Bardot, RIP.

She was a very lot of things, and one of them was smart enough to clock out of her serious acting career before she turned 40 and thus before she was too past The Wall.  The cleverness in that is that it meant that nearly everyone’s instant mental image of her would thus always be from her younger and hotter days, and never as a “hanging on too long” middle aged or old woman.

To show that the universe has a sense of humor.  In her postmortem, I saw a cover of a French magazine where she announced her animal rights activism.  The official date of that magazine was “31 Mars 1977,” the very day I was born.

Your Blogmeister’s German Desk

Me, December 2012.

Politico Europe, December 2025.

It takes my parody thirteen years to come true. The Babylon Bee doesn’t need so long.

Guest post by Puggg

Me, I hope that 2026 isn’t as eventful as 2025.

Because 2025 for me was when my house came within 2100 feet of taking a direct tornado strike. And that wasn’t even the worst tornado to hit the area this year.

For this and the previous four years and also for the rest of my life, December 14 to January 7 will be for me the Getting Everything I Wanted Cost Me Everything I Knew season.

Happy, sad, sappy, all at the same time.

Kansas City

Here’s why this is really happening.

You know who you’re reading, and you know where you’re reading it. So that means you can probably already figure out what I’m about to say.

The Kansas suburbs of Kansas City are whiter than Missouri’s. Or, to put it more accurately, far less black.

The “old” part of Kansas City, Kansas (“KCK” in area parlance), the city where this new stadium will go does have its share of blacks and Hispanics. However, the western half of it is pretty much Father Knows Best, insofar as it’s possible in our time. And that’s where it will be, in fact, close to the already existing Kansas Speedway and the MLS soccer team’s stadium.

I also tend to think that the team knows where its paying stadium going fans live, and they’re much more on the Kansas side than the Missouri side. Prosperity in the Kansas City metropolitan area is disproportionately on the Kansas side of the state line. The historical reason for that was court ordered school desegregation era; white flight crossed the state line to avoid any chance of white children being ensnared in any potential inter-district deseg mandate. While such was threatened in a roundabout way with the KCPS court case, it never did happen, and in fact, what got decided on was the massive spending program. The other side of Missouri, in contrast, did get cross-district busing.

Even if some sort of deal would have been swung relating to the existing Arrowhead site, the areas around there are too “sketchy” to say the least. Very close to the Arrowhead and Kaufman stadium area to the east, it’s pretty solid Bell Curve City. In fact, after one of the recent Chiefs Super Bowl wins, I read there was a shooting at a black nightclub not very far east of the Arrowhead complex.

If a potential Missouri deal had a pot that was as sweet as the Kansas deal, the team still would have taken Kansas. The only way they were going to stay is if a Missouri deal was just that unbelievably generous, so generous that there was no real world way for it to manifest.

That’s why the Chiefs so eagerly took the KCK deal once the ink was dry and didn’t even wait around for KCMO or Missouri to respond. Because it gets them into a much more white and a much less black area.

Miami; Dubai

Don’t doubt me on this.

A lot of “mainstream” type journalists were cheering when both Jake Paul and Andrew Tate lost their fights over the weekend to professional pugilists in both cases.

Remember, “mainstream” journalists hate the new wave of social media influencers, podcasters, vloggers and streamers, because the latter group didn’t “go to the right schools” and didn’t “go to J-school” and “pay their dues” and “go town to town up and down the dial” like a “mainstream” journalist did, yet are getting more fame, attention and money.

Anthony Joshua and Chase DeMoor gave them what they consider to be a little bit of sweet revenge. If only for one weekend.

Your Blogmeister’s German Desk

Today, for the first time in my life, I feel genuinely fulfilled. That I have reached the top of Maslow’s triangle.

That I don’t need to do or attain anything meaningfully more for the rest of my life. That I really do have it all.

Of course, I will and hope to do and get many more things. It’s just that all those things will be icing and gravy.

And yes, I got all that from my sons’ fifth birthday party. I really do have a one in a zillion mind.

Los Angeles

Probably the hottest thing on the American right of center internet right now.

My two hot takes while and immediately after doing so:

(1) It comes off as a too late to the party essay. Others who have gotten that same impression call it a “permission piece.” 10/7 is the obvious reason.

(2) Did Savage or any of his white or “white” friends in the DEI-ravaged creative industries truly think that their being anti-white whites or “whites” save then? Like painting blood on the door sill. No, in reality, as it was always going to be, the bell was going to toll for them as much as it already has for anyone else.

Something else important here: Someone quipped that every major non-Jewish identity and interest constituency that the ADL (and by deduction. organized activist Jewish interests) ever took up for have now turned on them. I can add to that: A group that the ADL never liked, American right of center Christian evangelicals, were always on their side on Israel, but are now getting either too old or too dead and are losing clout, and their children and grandchildren are far less enthralled with Jews and Israel.

Now for a more top of the mountain looking down on the kingdom assessment.

Affirmative action and DEI have been rampaging through the economy and hurting whites for a much longer time than this suggests.

So why does Jacob Savage make this out as something that only really started in 2012 and whose generational boundary line of hurting slash not hurting is between Millennials and X?

Because this essay is about certain creative industries and academia. Which were disproportionately Jewish. Which meant that Jewish tribal networking and backscratching was able to overcome affirmative action and DEI. Until the start of The Great Awokening (2012), which got power boosts with George Floyd (2020) and 10/7 (2023). True nons were able to overpower Jewish tribalism.

Personally, I interpret this essay as the start of Jews knocking on our door wanting us to let them back in and then fight their revenge battles for them. We should not give away our approval so quickly or easily, at least not without a lot of their reciprocity, reckoning and contrition.

And finally a white pill.

This essay, which got under J. D. Vance’s nose, and he tweeted it out, is making the WH get it in gear. If that’s what it took to make this happen, then it will be worth it in the long run.

All I hope for is that the WH and DOJ give higher priority to lower SES victimized white men. Spend more time and resources on helping out blue and gray collar white men who can’t even afford to look at a Ferrari, and not so much on millennial Jews who wanted to be TV script writers but are instead, to borrow the words of someone else, scalping tickets to make Ferrari payments.

–

Extra resources:

Jeremy Carl in Substack, “Why ‘The Lost Generation’ is a Lost Opportunity” and then a follow up tweet
Duane Patterson in Hot Air, “The Millennial Manifesto”
Dudley Newright (New Right Poast) on Twitter/X, on how Facebook helped fuel the DEI era
Eugyppius on his experiences

Phoenix

The TPUSA AmFest, the circular firing squad, the Chicken Littles, and all the black pilling.

I take the more white pilled view. Consider the bigger and longer term picture.

Nick Fuentes and the groypers gropyed Charlie Kirk events in late 2019. Then, they were astute enough to make their groyping all about easily relatable race issues, and leave the JQ out of it.

Actual speakers at the currently ongoing biggest Charlie Kirk organization event on the yearly calendar are denouncing “Israel First” and “the greater Israel project” by name (Steve Bannon) and openly broaching the USS Liberty tragedy (Jack Posobiec).

So in my estimation, the news here isn’t the row, to borrow a British term, it’s the fact that the debate is even happening at all. Not so long ago, at events like those, there would have been no debate.

Then again, most people have a hard time with longer event horizons. For instance, time travel back a mere eleven years and explain the next eleven years to Americans of December 2014; They would send you to the nuthouse. Here in Germany, time travel back thirteen years and tell the Germans of December 2012 that a political party that does not yet exist will be the strongest force in national polling thirteen years hence; They would send you to the Geisteskrankenhaus.

Or if you want a more pithy way, a glass half full way, of putting it:

It’s not that Ben Shapiro and Vivitar Ramadamadingdong are trying to sneak back in through the back door and re-neocon-ize the American right.

It’s that B & V know they and their of “thinking” are on the way down and out, and they’re throwing temper tantrums as the big hook is going around their waists while they’re on the stage.

Note: Today is day one of J. D. Vance’s “Operation Hide the Wife.”

Washington, D.C.

Something else that’s been on the tip of my tongue for little bit, and someone just helped me get it out.

Too much blackpilling about Pam Bondi, from both our sector in particular and even the more normie right.

First off, Matt Gaetz, who I still wish was USAG, and now has a show on OAN or Newsmax, one of the two, recently cosigned for her, more or less stating that she’s not doing anything any differently or less deficiently than he would have.

Second, the writer Federale from VDare now, like most of the erstwhile VDare writers, has a Substack. He has noted that Bondi is having really good success to clearing out the open borders snakes from the immigration administrative law judge contingent and replacing them with patriots.

That leads me to that thing that was on the tip of my tongue.

I also know that the DOJ’s cases against Leti James and other swamp creatures are hitting roadblocks. Part of which is because the DOJ doesn’t have its ducks in a row. But the major reason is that cases against swamp creatures would mostly be in swamp jurisdictions with swamp judges and swamp juries. With the inevitable result. Which is why I say the better way to do revenge tour is just to dump all the receipts for the benefit of the historians of the future.

If some of the difficulty in stringing up swamp creatures does come from DOJ incompetence, then I say this:

I don’t care.

There are just some things you have to get right, while there are things you can afford to get wrong.

The ambulance driver hauling a very critical patient better drive the curvy mountain switchbacks 100% perfectly. Meanwhile, rich guy can roll his hypercar into a guardrail as long as nobody else is hurt, get it how you live and he can afford to buy another one.

I would much rather the Pam Bondi run USAG and DOJ get immigration right and revenge tour wrong than the other way around. Immigration matters way more for the country and our civilization instead of some temporal and temporary political vengeance, which, like I said, can be handled in the court of future historians.

From what I can discern, the rightness of what she’s getting right matters way more than the wrongness of what she is or might be getting wrong.

Guérande, France

Remix:

Bailhache was a retired teacher and former school principal, serving as an opposition councilor in Guérande. She was involved in local cultural groups and known in artistic circles for her work and exhibitions.

News of her death spread quickly through the town, prompting tributes from residents and colleagues. Speaking to Ouest-France, one described the announcement as “an earthquake,” noting her presence in the Guérande Artistic Research Group and her visibility in art exhibitions. Multiple tributes were posted on Facebook following the announcement, praising the victim’s commitment to her local community.

Yannick Favennec, French MP for Mayenne, wrote on social media, “She was my teacher in secondary school. I had great admiration and respect for this woman of commitment and culture.”

One of many such stories. It’s just that this one for some reason got me to use it as a jumpoff to come to a profound observation. An epiphany.

I’ve always blown off screeching about “Trump being such and such” in terms of a deficient personality quality. Because I know (from first hand experience) that nearly all politicians have those same flaws.

What it means is that politics are businesses which select for those personalities.

Not that long ago, I would have thought that the assholery of politicians was mostly if not entirely a function of the modern media environment, “modern” post the advent of cable news networks and the 24/7 news cycle, only turbocharged by the advent of social media and mobile computing. In that, the more ways that exist to hound people who want to get into politics, the more it scares nice people away and leaves only the power obsessed assholes that don’t mind getting cooked and roasted.

Now I think it’s a thing that runs even deeper than that. Politicians are assholes fundamentally because people want their politicians to be assholes. Whether you’re talking 2025 AD or 44 BC. And the reason people have a very deep ingrained desire for their politicians to be assholes is because of the subconscious expectation and requirement that the will have to do mean asshole-y things in order to defend the group and vulnerable individuals within the group. After all, politics are part and parcel of human communal public affairs, and humans formed communities precisely out of a need of protection and defense.

The Darwinian filter purpose of giving power to mean people is so that they can make life and existence safe for nice people.

Magdeburg; Butler, Penn.

All the warning signs that Magdeburg nutbar gave out starting two years before the fact. All the warning signs that the Butler nutbar gave out for some time.

That’s the way it almost always seems to go with these stories. Nutbar does something nutbar-y, and we eventually find out that he was on a lot of radars for quite some time. With the inevitable question of why didn’t anyone along the way stop him.

I think I know the answer. Something I’ve been slowly figuring out.

That which the Magdeburg nutbar or the Butler nutbar or any of the others do which made them objects of official suspicion are things that also apply to many many many many many people. And, of that universe, only a very tiny percentage will go full nutbar. There just are not the resources, both human and otherwise, to check up on every such individual. And even if there were and that actually happened, it would wind up resulting in way many more harmless eccentrics being dragged into the system than nutbar murders prevented. And that would cause a civil rights and human rights scandal.

Dallas

Instant I read it, I thought of one word:

Dominica.

Reminds me a whole lot of the rather similar 1983 Dominica Plot.

Let me rewind 28 years in my own life. That year, 1997, was the year I can say I truly became a proper racialist. Once I did, I had to sorta cram and play catchup on what was at the time the relevant history of individuals, groups, milieus and personalities. One of the items of interest was the Dominica Plot, which by then was already a decade and a half in the past. When I was told, and then did further reading, on the who what where when why how, I remember having this immediate reaction, as best as I can recall now:

“Now that was a stupid idea. Plant yourself on some (unsayable word) Caribbean island surrounded a by a bunch of (plural form of the unsayable word).” My sector mentor at the time both agreed with me and said that he had already had the same reaction back in 1983. I mean, Don Black, David Duke and Co. would have done better to cook up a plan to buy and renovate dilapidated houses in the black ghetto section of some major American city and call that their white homeland. It would have been essentially the same thing, worked out (i.e. failed) just the same, but with the teeny tiny wee slight benefit of it not being an actual Federal felony.

Sometimes, then and now, I don’t know what the sector uses for brains. Because our way of thinking is getting more popular, and as more and more “normal” people become part of it, this kind of dumbassery as a percentage of everything our sector does will only decline. The sooner the better.

Now, back to the matter at hand.

At first, I thought that the main difference is that, while Dominica was a true racial-ideological plot, this Haiti thing was not, or it did not seem to be.

But then, BPS dropped a video a few hours later that moved that needle back the other way just a bit.

More accurately, it was part and parcel of a long time serial memetic obsession with Haiti on 4chan and /pol/.

One slight irony of that is that Don Black’s other claim to fame, after he got out of prison, is that he would go on to found Stormfront, the first real WN internet server-based portal and platform.

Specific to this plot, sometimes these things cross the cosplay-reality barrier, and these two goofballs in Dallas stepped on the wrong side of the line, (similar to Black, Duke and Co. in 1983), at which time the law had to get involved. As far as I can tell, the Dominica Plot got a lot further along than Frick and Frack here, though nowhere near successful consummation in either, but both still stepping over the line of legality.

Yet, I still come back around to the same question about this that I have had all along about the similar 1983 Dominica plot:

FOR GOD SAKE, WHY?

Do all this just to get control of a black island in the Caribbean (or in the case of Haiti, the western one-third of an island). First off, we know damned well that there would have been some state-level intervention if such a coup would successfully happen, and it would come from Washington if it happens in the Caribbean. Just the fact that the Feds intervened in both 1983 and 2025 before either one could get too far off the ground should be enough evidence. But let’s say that you get past that and both the international community and the American Department of Justice just let it slide, meaning you can travel back to America or anywhere after you’ve conquered Haiti or Dominica and are its new rulers.

Then what?

What are you going to do with it? Highly lacking in the “then what” department. Then again, if your whole plan is to turn Haiti into a sex slave colony for your own benefit, or a tiny black island into a white ethnostate, you probably don’t have the ability to think about contingencies and aren’t really planning things out or thinking things through. You’re stuck on an island or part of an island with a bunch of (plural form of the unsayable word). Be careful what you ask for, because you just might get it. Good and hard. Have fun.

As BPS says at the end of his video, it wouldn’t take much to topple Haiti. Unlike BPS, I think that’s precisely the reason why nobody of any serious consequence will ever do it. Nothing ventured…

Note: And if it’s black women sex slaves you want, there’s always Instagram.

Washington, D.C.

Dear 2006:

You’re not going to believe this.

But, here in 2025, Rachel Maddow loves Dick Cheney.

How that will come to be is going to be yours to witness in the next almost two decades. And it, as 2025’s young people say, will be wild AF.

(It means “as fuck”)

Signed,

Someone who was blogging in this very space in 2006

Berlin

Soft conscription is going to happen in this country, starting the new year. It’s official.

Now that it’s official, this country’s officialdom has finally gotten around to figuring out something I did when the debate started months ago. That so many 18-year olds in this country are named Mohammed. Are they sure it’s a good idea to be giving them military training and access to certain information?

Then there’s the matter of one in six young men born in 2008 (turn 18 next year when the soft draft returns) are dual citizens.

I should note that my almost five year old sons are dual citizens. Though in this telling, I don’t see any estimate or count of those who have both Germany and USA citizenship. But it all means that in 13 years, unless something changes, my two sons will be either one of two things: Conscripted, or on a Lufthansa to St. Louis.

Then there’s the grand irony of this: All of a sudden, they’re worried about letting dual citizens whose other passport is with a difficult country into the military and having access to vital or maybe secret information? Where was that concern before even letting so many from that other country into Germany to begin with? Geese and ganders, and all that. I can tell you where it was: It was not only non-existent, but anyone who publicly speculated, here came all the usual vituperative that Ye Olde Current Year could muster. Right wing extremist, conspiracy theorist, bigot, racist, and sometimes Nazi.

And then there’s the greater point.

If some real S hits the F and this soft military draft that’s about to start becomes a real wartime draft:

1. People will suddenly stop having a problem with basic biology. IOW, people are going to understand that there are only two sexes, and that there is a dichotomy and a difference between men and women. Especially in figuring out what a man is. “Transmen” will suddenly start being real women again.
2. These new passport Germans who have until now be said to be just as good as, if not actually more worthy than, autochthonous Germans, will suddenly not be trusted and once again be officially otherized. In fact, they’ll otherize themselves. “Nope, I’m not a German, I’m a Turk, or Syrian, or Afghan, or Somalian, or yadda.”
3. Young men who support the AfD will suddenly be officially en vogue and celebrated, instead of being the objects of official suspicion, inquiry and scorn. At such a time, their loyalty to the constitution will in no way be in doubt. Or as Wall Street Apes tweeted several years ago, now that young white men were suddenly being featured in American military recruitment advertising once again, it must mean that there’s about to be a real war.

Long and short: Current year woketard leftism is a luxury peacetime set of beliefs. Bad economy and/or war, kaput.

Washington, D.C.

Yes, only yours truly could find a common denominator.

Something’s been bothering me to the point where I’m ready to get it off the tip of my tongue.

Trump 2.0 is not as pro-Israel as Trump 1.0. I knew even in the days when it wasn’t even certain that there would be a Trump 2.0 (other than in the estimations of the most connected and plugged in people who already knew by mid-2022 that there would be) that Trump got more chilly towards Israel and that it would show during the second term. Not that Trump would be totally neutral, and certainly not anti-Israel, and not that Trump would never engage in any substantive material action that would be in Israel’s interests. (The Iran bombings earlier this year demonstrated that.) It’s just that, read the first sentence of the paragraph.

I’ve been trying to figure out why the sector can’t seem to understand that. A few days ago, I think I came up with a good theory: It’s all a matter of increased sensitivity. Because a lot of taboos have suddenly been broken and it’s not as hard to be anti-Jewish or anti-Israel as it used to be on both the left and right, it means that those who are already anti-J or anti-I now have some sort of societal cover to be more intense in those positions than they used to be, and also that they want to stay transgressive and on the cutting edge; If more and more people are getting comfortable in being anti-J/I, it means that merely being anti-J/I isn’t as cutting edge “naughty” as it used to be.

Let’s say that you weren’t deathly allergic to peanuts on Monday and develop an allergy on Tuesday. Come Wednesday, your piece of bread better not have any peanut butter, either a little or a lot. It won’t matter to you that Monday’s piece of bread had a lot of peanut butter while Wednesday’s doesn’t have that much. The difference does not matter, the existence does. Think of Trump 1.0 as Monday’s piece of bread and Trump 2.0 as Wednesday’s.

Sault Ste. Marie, Mich. and Ont.

Younger people who have heard the song might be shocked to find out that it wasn’t just a song, it was a song memorializing an actual event that had taken place the year before. And that the SS Edmund Fitzgerald was an actual freighter on the Great Lakes.

Fifty years ago today, it happened.

NYC

Now that it’s official and in the books, I’m going to link back to a prediction I made back in July. Which is an important jumpoff to what I’m about to say.

What if even that is being worried about nothing? After a couple of “sleepings on it,” the more I conclude that Mamdani is just an Obama style charismatic bullshitter who promised the moon to a bunch of utopian dweebs. When he inevitably can’t deliver (hint: NYC’s sclerotic labyrinthine way of doing business), they’re going to be very let down to say the least.

Add to that that Mamdani is picking a fight with the human being in this world who understands the best the way that city does business, especially when it comes to the even more labyrinthine real estate sector. Mamdani is going to get swatted like a slow bug. Old age and treachery > Youth and skill. Grab the popcorn. Should be wild AF.

Chicago

On substance, I agree with virtually all of this.

But, devil’s advocate:

Tucker Carlson just interviewed Nick Fuentes, not Jared Taylor.

Even though I wish it was the other way around.

And to my only point of substantive disagreement with this, Nick’s antics haven’t hurt the movement, and certainly haven’t hurt him. The movement keeps growing in spite of whatever damage Nick is causing it, for reasons other than Nick’s antics, which seem to be irrelevant to the more fundamental ground shifting that is happening. Or, to put it another way, if Nick’s antics are costing the movement, the movement can now “afford” them or “absorb” them in ways that it was not able to do through most of its existence. Lipton Matthews is correct in that there doesn’t seem to be and probably will never be a Fuentes-to-intellectual pipeline, but it’s also becoming more and more obvious that there doesn’t need to be for the success of our general movement. It may be the case that it’s precisely why our movement is growing — So goes the old saying: The t-bones from the nearest five star are the best, but Waffle House serves the most t-bones.

Then there’s the bigger picture. You can’t have real influence unless people know who you are. And, increasingly, people won’t know who you are unless you engage in Jackass and clown attention-drawing and -seeking tactics. I would insert the crying face emoji here upon writing about people not knowing who you are, but, as of right now, my professional success necessarily depends on my anonymity. So I’ll take it.

Yet and still, I resent Nick Fuentes and before him Richard Spencer for hogging up all the sector oxygen that rightly belongs to Jared Taylor.

The Hague

What happened Wednesday. Slightly modified from my hot take day after the fact social post. ICYMI, I was there at the PVV gathering, as well as in The Hague itself the previous five days.

First off, the actual count resulted in PVV (Wilders) and D66 (center-left) tied for first place. Which means the reality is a little better than the first exit polls which had D66 with a slight lead. As seems to be the usual on this continent, a slight Bradley Effect.

Results after appropriation have PVV down 11 chairs, with JA21 up 8 and FvD (fmr Thierry Baudet) up 4. So of the 11 that PVV lost, all that and one more went to other parties in the general sector.

Here’s how it all comes together:

(1) There has been speculation all campaign season that the establishment were bosting JA21 and FvD just to draw blood away from PVV to deny them any football spiking. From what I saw, I halfway believe that theory and halfway don’t, for various reasons pro and con on both sides.

(2) The reason this election was last week, only two years after the last one, is that Geert Wilders pulled out of the coalition because he got sick and tired of their promise breaking and foot dragging. While I don’t blame him at all, and I still think he did the right thing, and I would have done it myself, there did turn out to be a percentage of those who leaned his way who believed it was a bush league thing for him to do. Many of those likely went to either JA21 or FvD.

(3) Something I had already figured. And something that has been in a whisper campaign in country for a couple of weeks. That even if PVV would have bettered their previous result, it wouldn’t have had any path to bettering it enough to prevent yet another deadlock square one stasis situation with the usual firewalls. Meaning that the kind of government would have been virtually the same as the one that just got dissolved. So if you’re something of a marginal PVV/Wilders voter, what real motivation or incentive to you have to crawl over shattered glass nails and hot coals to vote for it and him? When it really wasn’t going to matter anyway. Again, some of those kind of people opted for JA21 or FvD.

(4) Then there’s a bigger picture problem. Geert Wilders is starting to become too much of a perennial candidate. Now, perennial candidates aren’t the same kind of negative drag here in Europe that they are in America. Hence, Wilders’s shock win two years ago. Eventually, though, the fish and visitors were going to start stinking. That also explains some of his and its decline yesterday, and once again, some went to JA21 or PvD.

Object lessons:

(1) Time for Geert Wilders to fall back, from major ambitions. See also: Marine LePen. If her lawfare case isn’t resolved in her favor, then that will become a moot question. And I happen to think that the whole white collar political pop-nat-right sector on this continent is getting a bit anxious for a reboot to the next generation. If in two years it’s Jordan Bardella or Fabrice Leggeri instead of MLP, the RN will have a better result than what it would get with sending MLP up again. In the European country of most acute interest to me, the AfD is at the vestibule of its own reboot from 2G to 3G. Which I think it’s going to need to do in order to capitalize fully on its rising poll numbers and keep them going. Less Alice and Tino, more Ulrich Siegmund, Jan Nolte and Rene Aust.

(2) And this all points to a vulnerability for our sector at least in its white collar political form at least for the near future. If the establishment keeps firewalls going, it could wind up disspirting and discouraging enough voters such that election day results turn out to be disappointments. Except one difference between The Netherlands and the rest of the continent is that The Netherlands had two other legit credible options in Geert’s neighborhood. Here, the AfD is the only game in town. Austria, ditto with the FPO. France, while Reconquete still exists and now one other option around MMLP, neither one of them can get any traction, which means the RN is essentially the only option. Etc in other countries. Which means that, while the firewall tactic having this result might have been a one time one country one off. Thinking out loud, our parties everywhere else should actually hope that the firewall stays so that they can stay owning the issues and the territory on the “wrong” side of the firewall.

(3) Plus the more fundamental point afoot that is relevant to this, which in a bigger sense is something I’ve been saying for ten years and started saying back on the other continent. That nothing is going to change in a big way in either a positive or negative sense for us until the boomers age out and pass on. Stalemate in these political matters until then.

London

Remix:

Award-winning broadcaster, writer, and former politician Sir Trevor Phillips has said that Muslim grooming gangs have targeted “tens of thousands” of White children across Britain, describing the abuse as “industrial” in scale and protected by political fear.

Speaking to Times Radio, Phillips said the ongoing grooming gangs inquiry has been hindered by authorities’ reluctance to confront the link between race and sexual predation.

“What’s coming together here is a really horrid combination that nobody really ever wants to talk about — the intersection of race and sexual predation,” he said. “Let’s be honest, a lot of this is bringing those two things together in an unpleasant way.”

(snip)

Drawing on decades of reporting on child abuse, he added that the victims were deliberately chosen “because they are White and because they are outside the community of the groomers.”

What this is saying is that the Pakistani sex slavers had all the confidence in the world that they could victimize white girls because they already understood that there wasn’t any such thing as organized whiteness that would clap back at them in either a “legal” or “illicit” form. In addition to the fact that they themselves knew that the cuck system coddles them and panders to them. All things considered, they weren’t wrong, even if they are evil. Like several of the sex slavers themselves told detectives, they honestly believed that the system gave them permission to do what they did, and that they were honestly surprised that they got the measly consequences that they wound up getting.

It’s almost as if it’s primal human reality that one’s personal safety and security are necessarily dependent on being part of a group that has a reputation for engaging in group self-interested violence, be that violence official or unofficial. That these things aren’t just rainbows and bottles of Coke teaching the world how to sing.

Orem, Utah

College Fix:

Grannis, with the left-wing group, also said he doesn’t want outsiders on campus. “We don’t want tourists here. We don’t want random people that aren’t students on campus walking around,” he said.

Some people have similar attitudes about whole countries. Except these same people, who are so nationalist about their precious college campus, will protest and maybe even commit violence against such people.

The difference is that their “blood and soil” aren’t ancestry group and expansive regional territory, they’re ideology and the real estate that institutions of tertiary education use. Which is one reason why they’re so happy that Charlie Kirk was assassinated, because he had the audacity to “invade” “their” “turf” as an “outsider.”

A normiecon aphorism is that (pph): “Non-conservatives suddenly become conservative about things that are in their immediate self-interest.” I think that all one needs to do is change that saying’s shape a little bit and it becomes even more true. Try this out: Even the most strident egalitarian is a nationalist about that which matters most to them.

New York; Alton

Bill Buckley from his grave is trying to purge Phyllis Schlafly from her grave.

That’s all that really needs to be stated about the matter. Nice and pithy.

I think one of the mistakes that both the initial screed in NRO and this response are making is that it too closely conflates Trump with Goldwater. Their only real similarity is that they started out as hostile outsider insurgent forces to the Republican Party establishment. Both wound up doing that. The main difference is that Goldwater was only able to hold onto the party temporarily because of the landslide loss to LBJ, the old guard then mostly got back control immediately thereafter. Trump actually did capture the party because he won twice and maybe three times, and looks like the old guard he beat will never come back. Which leads to the main reason why Trump =/= Goldwater. It’s because Goldwater was an economic libertarian, Trump an economic populist. No matter what else they advocated or did in 1964 or 2016 respectively that might have congruency, economic libertarianism was a third rail in both years and still is now. In turn, that means that if one makes them out to be entirely the same, then one is overanalyzing the situation and the history.

Can you believe that Back to the Future II Day, October 21, 2015, is, today, ten years in the past?

Something that has been on my mind about that.

The whole BTTF trilogy is full of paradoxes and WTFs. They were just movies, so that’s to be expected.

Here’s one relating to the canon in II that I don’t think I’ve ever read anyone else so interested in BTTF fanfic bring up:

It’s this matter of, after old Biff drops the almanac off to young Biff in ’55, that the timeline changes.

We later found out that young Biff made his first million gambling at the track on his 21st birthday in 1958, and then went on a legendary winning streak.

In the real world, that would have caused raised eyebrows. Nobody can be that lucky.

And especially back in the late ’50s and through the ’60s America, where the kind of people you had to go to to gamble would have been the type to send an “auditor” or “detective” your way who wouldn’t have exactly come across with dork accountant energy and wouldn’t have followed any civil rights due process.

Even today, when the gambling business is a lot cleaner (in theory), it seems like half the Ph.D. mathematicians work for one, just to construct quantitative algorithms to alert management to when they’re the ones being gamed. Any such individual who does this, is going to be shown the door.

BTTF II day is today, meaning Arch Day is one week from today. 60th anniversary.