1/19/25 Monday 3 am

It was not my intention to go so long without posting. It’s been a rough week. I need to come to terms with the fact that I cannot plan on anything in the future, or schedule anything. My life is only predictable about 4 hours into the future on any given day if I am lucky.

Enough of that, I will figure it out. Based on some of the emails I am getting, people have not been watching the national weather. If you haven’t been following it, the warm, dry weather we have been experiencing is affecting only about a third of the US.

Snow in Alabama yesterday, snow in Florida yesterday. Moderate snow in Georgia. This is the second winter in a row that snow has fallen in these areas. Before last winter it had been in the mid-1950s since this happened in Florida .

Models show a big snow and ice event next weekend evolving out of the remnants of a storm that may (or may not) affect us by later this week. The likely track would be across New Mexico, into Northern Texas, and across the Gulf States, then up the east coast (again).

I am going to be very cautious with this one for our area, because at this point, I see a lot that can go wrong with this storm. It is already showing telltale signs that it could miss us. However, if everything goes right, it would likely have its biggest impacts across the southern portions of the forecast area.

Here is where the country is at as of now.

Let’s continue with “the big picture” for now and look at the whole country.

Tuesday night

Thursday Morning

Friday Morning- Closed low now on shore, trying to tap moisture. Arctic air expands

Regional view Friday morning through Sunday morning.

Friday morning state view

High pressure finally drives out the warmer air on the west slope. Notice how moisture starved the storm is at the point

If this verified it would deposit 5 to 15 inches of fluffy snow across the forecast area. Obviously, things will change between now and next weekend.

As I said a lot can go wrong  between now and then. Be diligent, stay tuned, don’t panic, don’t bet the farm on it. I will be tracking it.

I haven’t put together the MJO part 2 post yet. However, things are happening.

Here is the European models forecast. Notice the MJO is finally active, out of the circle of weather death, and up in phase 6.

The numbers on the dotted line correspond to the date, The black line is the past, the redline is current. Notice the “20” on the red line? That is where the MJO is tomorrow. It then shoots through phase 7 (which is good, phase 7 is not favorable for us). Then into phase 8.

We have not been in phase 8 since the last time we had snow. All you need to know is phase 8, 1, and 2 are where we want to be if we want cold and snow.

Here is what it looks like when we hit phase 8 on Saturday.

As we go into these phases “favorable” is the key word. Phases 8,1 and 2, are favorable for winter weather here, but it does not guarantee it.

At some point, I will be able to get into the phases in more detail, but I wanted to show you briefly how it works since I have been talking about it for so long.

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1/11/26 Sunday 8 am

What a great storm! Yes, seriously! Well, not for most people in the forecast area; however, if you were “under the enhancement,” you were very happy!

Most reports were 5 to 12 inches across the south and southeast portions of the forecast area. Farmington did very well with 8+ inches reported. Across the south, the highest totals were east of 550 and south of 160. One of the least snowy areas in the forecast area.

Up north, Ouray won with a reported total of 19 inches.

We are going to go back to warmer drier conditions as winter returns to the eastern half of the US (again) and there will be very little to talk about the next few days.

I am going to take a few days and do two things:

1: Attempt to figure out what to expect for the rest of the winter. La Niña is collapsing. Latest ENSO models show us moving into the neutral phase (La Nada if you prefer). Historically, our area experiences its most precipitous periods during the neutral stages.

2: Finish my MJO discussion. I will repost the first discussion immediately prior to releasing part 2.

It should be towards the end of the week.

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1/9/16 Friday 5 am

It appears a narrow moderate band of snow arrived overnight from Durango to the east along the 160 corridor into Archuleta County, as I observed on the European model and posted yesterday afternoon.

Given the European model’s nearly 7-mile margin of error, it performed much better than the GFS.

It missed DW2 for the most part compared to what I see on the webcams around and east of Durango. But I am happy that some of you are waking up to snow this morning!

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01/08/26 Thursday 3 pm

I am just saying, don’t be surprised if a couple of inches of snow, or more, fall over the southern portions of the forecast area overnight and tomorrow before moving out of the area in the afternoon.

There is a big divide between the GFS and European at moment. GFS has more snow in the northern forecast area (north of Purgatory).  The European model actually stretches the snow from New Mexico (Farmington) into SW La Plata County, Durango, Bayfield, 240 corridor up to Vallecito, Forest Lakes, all of Archuleta County along 160 up to Wolf Creek. Enhanced snow would develop above 7,200 feet.

NWS appears to be backing the GFS, increasing the snowfall totals for the mountains by an additional 3 to 6 inches of snow tonight into tomorrow.

Maybe both will be right, that’s what I am rooting for!

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01/09/26 Thursday 2:30 am

No spinning this, the closed low that came ashore yesterday is already parked between Santa Fe and SE Colorado.

A shortwave trough is providing energy to fuel some mountain snow showers, while the cold front is still back in Nevada.

12 hours ago, I noted the lack of run-to-run consistency in the models and decided to hold off on an extended forecast.

Looks like a little snow has fallen at DWG HQ since I woke up, less than half an inch. Purgatory appears to have accumulated just under 2 inches as of 4 am. Moderate snow is falling around Telluride and light snow is falling around Wolf Creek.

As the colder air moves in, it may push some drier air ahead of it, which would temporarily shut down the precipitation. As the trough approaches, snow should redevelop, but favor the NW San Juans: Telluride, Red Mountain, and Ouray, and even Silverton may also get in on the action if the moisture gets trapped in the Valley before the cold air arrives, resulting in an overrunning event.

At best, NW San Juans are likely to see an event total of less than 8 inches. Purgatory could end up with 4 to 6 inches. Wolf Creek is a bit of a wild card but likely in the 3 to 6 inch range.

If the lower and mid-elevations end up with 1 to 3 inches, I would now consider that a win.

What we originally hoped for with all the pieces coming together can no longer happen. Could other pieces regroup at the last minute to produce enhanced precip across the entire forecast area? Sure. But I am not betting on it.

This has evolved into a “sometimes it just snows” event. It is winter, by the way, even though it does not seem like it.

All is not lost. I still see signs of a reversal before winter is over. It will likely come up after another bout of warm weather, briefly, before the pattern flips.

If I see an abrupt shift throughout the day, I will post.

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01/07/26 Wednesday 3 pm

The all-important HiRes NAM 3km model shifted its snowfall forecast for the entire event from this :    (By the way, if you are new, this is inches of snow, the colors correlate with scale)

 

To this in a 6-hour period. The difference? In the first one, the closed low was offshore; in the second, the low was onshore at initialization.

So here is what I am going to do. I will be up early and post with the latest data. This is a two-phase storm with phase two forecasted to be stronger. I expect snow when you wake up, but minimal impact early on, so it won’t be too late for me to post my expectations for event totals.

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1/7/26 Wednesday 5 am

I have been studying the models this morning, most show the closed low coming ashore in Northern Baja between 10 am and 2 pm today.

The system will have two components: a shortwave arriving overnight through Thursday morning, followed by a more potent trough later on Thursday.

There is a pretty good chance we will see a Winter Weather Advisory for the lower elevations before both systems depart the area. Southern mid-elevations may receive as much precipitation as the mountains, but snow ratios will offset the overall totals, especially on Thursday evening. As I have been saying, not a big storm, but an extremely efficient snow producer. The most efficient we have seen this season (for this discussion, “efficient” means making the most of little).

My initial take is 2 to 6 inches across the southern half of La Plata County. Perhaps 4 to 10 inches of snow across the mountains by late Friday. Mid-elevations will likely be between those totals. I am going to forecast the two-day totals for this event.

I will leave you with that, so I can “do what I do,” and I plan to get my initial forecast out by this afternoon.

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1/6/26 Tuesday 3 am

As I mentioned yesterday, the models will struggle with accuracy until they have something on land to track. The latest data from all models points to midday on Wednesday for that closed low to come ashore south of San Diego and track northeast.

I was surprised by the brief light snow flurries that fell across the mid- and lower elevations yesterday morning. “Sometimes it just snows…”

The most significant change in the last 24 hours is in the GFS model. The GFS is now all in on the late-week storm. At the same time, the European model is now playing with lower totals. We should see better alignment among the models tomorrow afternoon.

I will try to stay neutral until tomorrow, but I am excited to see how this comes together. As for low-elevation snow, I believe it will be all or none. I do not see this as a warm, rainy, high-elevation event; instead, I see a hit-or-miss. I am also still in the camp that if it does “hit”,  it will not be a big storm, but it will be efficient in snow production.

In other news, the MJO is still expected to emerge in about 10 days, so after this storm, we will have plenty to discuss!

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1/5/26 Monday 3:30 am

For today, expect flurries over the higher elevations, mainly north of Electra Lake.

Yesterday, I noted that the models diverged and moved to neutral on the late-week storm. Twenty-four hours later, it appears the GFS may be trying to compromise with the European.

This would bring higher-quality snow to the mountains instead of the slop we have been getting from SoCal leftovers. It would also bring some much-desired snow to the lower elevations. At this point, it may not be enough for an advisory, but it would be a welcome change!

Update 4:30 am

The new European run is out. It shows heavier precipitation in the lower elevations than in all recent runs. This is certainly positive; however, the closed low-pressure system responsible for the moisture component does not come ashore until Wednesday morning at the earliest. At that point, the models will be able to better determine its track.

I will try to remain neutral, but I am now very much looking forward to the model runs as they are released.

Looking further out, it looks like we may get some movement with the MJO around 1/14. Most models show it finally emerging from the circle of death around that time period.

After this system, I will be able to resume our MJO discussion!

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1/4/26 Sunday 5 am

Today

Warmer temps will be back on track today. Flurries are possible across higher-elevation areas at or above 10,000 feet.

Tomorrow

A weak system in northwest flow will deliver anything from flurries to a couple of inches of snow for the NW San Juans. I have my eye on a couple of models highlighting Lizard Head Pass for a better chance of accumulation over 3 inches. I will have plenty of time to re-evaluate that tomorrow morning before the precipitation chances increase by midday.

Late Week Storm

After a couple of days of agreement, the models have decided to go their separate ways and pursue their own solutions for the late-week storm. Officially, my cautiously optimistic tone is back to neutral until the models come back together.

What I am seeing is the European model still indicating a storm that would deliver advisory snow amounts for both the mountains and lower elevations. That while the GFS now takes the moisture source south a few hundred miles, we get nothing.

Nothing has changed with the current conditions or current locations of the systems involved. Either the GFS is setting the trend, or it is lost. I have been reviewing many more models than I usually do this morning for clues, and finding none.

It is not unusual to see some divergence, but when the systems are still over the ocean, the models cannot converge on a solution. Hopefully, by Tuesday, we will see the models get back together for improved guidance.

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