College Football Playoff National Championship
Monday, Jan. 19| 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, Fla.
No. 1 Indiana (15-0) vs. No. 10 Miami, Fla. (13-2)
Line: Indiana –8.5 | O/U: 47.5
The Setup
The 2026 CFP National Championship features one of the most improbable matchups in history: the undefeated No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers, seeking their first-ever title, against the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes, aiming for their sixth ring and first since 2001. Played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida—the Hurricanes’ home turf—this clash pits Indiana’s disciplined, takeaway-heavy style against Miami’s athletic, big-play offense. Expect a contrast of styles: Indiana’s ball-control efficiency and defensive havoc vs. Miami’s explosive passing and run game, with the game likely swinging on turnovers, red-zone execution, and special teams in the humid South Florida night. Kickoff is set for Monday, January 19, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Indiana Hoosiers

Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have scripted a fairy-tale season: from 6-7 in 2024 to 15-0, a Big Ten title, and dominant playoff wins over No. 9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal (a 38-3 blowout, holding the Tide to 193 total yards and forcing 4 turnovers) and No. 5 Oregon in the Peach Bowl semifinal (27-20, with 3 forced fumbles). Heisman Trophy winner QB Fernando Mendoza (3,500+ passing yards, 35 TDs, 6 INTs, 72.5% completion—top-5 national efficiency) embodies the team’s rise: a former Cal transfer who peaked late in recruiting, leading with poise, accuracy, and faith-driven character (organizes team Bible studies, credits daily Mass for focus, and has shared how it helped through being overlooked). WR Omar Cooper Jr. (804 yards, 11 TDs) and Elijah Sarratt (1,200+ yards, 12 TDs) form a dynamic duo, stretching fields and exploiting mismatches. RB Justice Ellison adds balance (1,100+ rushing yards, 5.2 ypc). The defense is elite: No. 1 nationally in takeaways (35+), top-5 in third-down stops (<30% allowed), and red-zone efficiency (allowed TDs on <45% of trips). All-Big Ten LB Aiden Fisher (100+ tackles, 4 INTs) anchors a unit that shut down Alabama’s run game (under 2 ypc) in the Rose Bowl. No major opt-outs keep Indiana at full strength, motivated to complete the perfect season and cement Cignetti’s legacy.
Miami Hurricanes
Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes (13-2) have revived “The U” swagger with upsets over No. 7 Texas A&M (10-3 first round) and No. 2 Ohio State (24-14 Cotton Bowl quarterfinal) before edging No. 6 Ole Miss (34-31 Fiesta Bowl semifinal). Transfer QB Carson Beck (3,512 passing yards, 26 TDs, 65.2% completion) has stabilized the offense with veteran poise (low INT rate), delivering clutch drives like the game-winner vs. OSU. Freshman sensation WR Malachi Toney (1,100+ all-purpose yards, 10 TDs) exploded in playoffs (two TDs vs. OSU), complementing a physical run game led by RB Mark Fletcher Jr. (1,028 rushing yards, 12 TDs; 100+ yards in Cotton Bowl). All-American DL Rueben Bain Jr. (12 sacks, disruptive force with 3 in Cotton Bowl) anchors a defense that’s found playoff gear (top-10 sacks, held OSU to 218 yards). The unit bends but doesn’t break (No. 8 red-zone efficiency), forcing negative plays. No significant opt-outs keep Miami intact, motivated to win a sixth title on home soil and silence doubters about their seeding.
Key Storylines
- Fairy tale vs. resurgence — Indiana’s undefeated run (first title shot ever) vs. Miami’s “The U” revival (fifth playoff appearance, seeking sixth natty). The Hoosiers outscored playoff foes 65-23, showcasing balance; Miami grinded wins 68-58 combined, relying on defense (allowed 45 total points).
- QB spotlight — Mendoza’s Heisman precision (top-5 efficiency, low INTs) vs. Beck’s veteran steadiness; Mendoza’s faith and character shine in pressure (5 games with 300+ yards/3+ TDs), but Beck’s experience (42 career starts) could keep Miami in it.
- Defensive havoc — Indiana No. 1 in takeaways and third-down stops; Miami top-10 in sacks but vulnerable to balanced attacks (allowed 5+ ypc in losses). Bain Jr. vs. Indiana’s OL is must-watch.
- Run game duel — Ellison’s consistency (5.2 ypc) vs. Fletcher Jr.’s explosiveness (long rush over 15.5 yards in playoffs—key prop bet); Indiana’s run D held Alabama under 2 ypc in the Rose blowout.
- Bracket paths — Indiana dominated (easy side?); Miami survived upsets—coaches predict Hoosiers win but closer than expected.
- Roster/motivation — No major opt-outs; Indiana chases perfection, Miami leverages “home” field (Hard Rock is their stadium).
- Trends — Indiana 15-0 ATS as favorite; Miami +8.5 underdog (84% handle on IU). O/U 47.5—coaches see low-50s, but Miami props favor Fletcher’s runs.
The Pick
Indiana enters as favorites (~ -8.5 points) due to undefeated resume, defensive dominance, and Mendoza’s leadership. Miami’s defense matches well early, but the Hoosiers’ takeaways and ball control wear down the ‘Canes late—Mendoza’s heart, talent, and faith shine in a storybook finish.
Prediction: Indiana 38, Miami 17.
Copyright © 2026 by Doug DeBolt.