Neurodrooling

Like many armchair generals I’ve been applying the strategic and tactical knowledge I’ve picked up from studying other wars to the Russian-Ukraine conflict. And like many generals – armchair and actual – I’ve been guilty of ‘fighting the previous war’ rather than properly coming to grips with the realities of this one.

For example, while I still believe I was correct in assessing Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s Kursk oblast as a purely political PR exercise which actually weakens Ukraine’s military position, I incorrectly assumed the Russian advances on the flanks of the Ukrainian salient would encircle Ukrainian forces, cut them off from resupply and reinforcement and force them to surrender. That’s how salients have been dealt with since the 19th century.

What it would have done is made all those Ukrainian POWs Russia’s responsibility and forced Ukraine to stop investing scarce manpower and resources into propping up their Kursk incursion.

Instead what Russia did is squeeze the base of the salient closed far enough so its artillery and drones could cover all the roads used to supply Ukraine’s troops, rendering them militarily almost ineffective while inflicting severe additional costs on attempts to resupply, reinforce or withdraw them. In fact Russia has been able to destroy most of the combat vehicles of what were formerly veteran Ukrainian mobile units and reduce them to being little more than depleted infantry formations.

But one development of the war that has garnered little media attention compared to the ridiculous claims of how expensive Abrams, Leopard and Challenger tanks or HIMARS and ATACMS missiles would soon ensure Ukraine’s victory is the use of drone warfare by both sides. Yeah, we keep hearing about drone attacks – mostly which Russian facilities Ukraine has destroyed with them, how many Russian drones have been shot down or stories of innocent civilians killed in Russian drone attacks – but we’re getting almost no information from the mainstream media as to how drones are changing frontline tactics or what that means for future conflicts worldwide.

The first thing to say is combat drones are ridiculously cheap compared to almost all other modern weapons systems and are often improvised from civilian hobby drones using materials available to anyone who can access guns or explosives. That means we’ll soon see the drone lessons learned in Ukraine applied to small, asymmetric conflicts across the world, including attacks by irregular forces and terrorists.

The next thing to note is there’s already rapid evolution in drone control systems underway as defenders try to jam them and attackers come up with new methods to defeat the jamming. Even though Russia is believed to be among the world’s leaders in electronic warfare technology (after China and the US) they’ve been unable to keep far enough ahead of anti-jamming techniques to render Ukraine’s drone force ineffective.

I’ve been hearing and reading a lot of claims by strategic ‘experts’ that Russia could advance to the Dnieper river almost overnight with one big push. While this is probably true the cost would be exorbitant in men and material due to the casualties Ukrainian drones could inflict on them as they advanced in the open.

OTOH, I’ve also heard claims by one or two analysts that Ukraine’s failing manpower and troop morale is of little consequence because they can defend the lines with drones. This is also untrue. Without enough human beings to oversee static defences such as minefields, tank traps and barbed wire the Russians could infiltrate small, covert units to neutralise them then sow havoc in Ukrainian trenches and behind the lines – including the bases used to launch and control drones. When Ukraine can no longer field enough troops to cover the long front line – and that day is coming soon – they will start losing ground quickly regardless of what weapon systems they can bring to bear.

But the big implication I’m yet to hear anyone talk about is how military actions by major powers against weaker ones – such as those routinely carried out by the US and Israel – are set to get a lot more expensive as defenders equip themselves with military drones that can inflict serious losses on advancing troops even if they enjoy complete air superiority. An F-35 or Apache helicopter is of little use against a drone with a negligible heat signature, too small to show up on radar screens and flying below treetop level. They represent stealth technology more effective than that of the most advanced warplanes for well under $1000 per unit.

So for now at least the full spectrum military dominance enjoyed by the US globally and Israel locally is drawing to a close. You can never say never when it comes to military innovation so how long drones will be a game-changer is hard to say. But my guess is there’s people in the Pentagon and IDF who know the score and they’ll be putting pressure on politicians to think very hard before resorting to military escalation in the near future.

The ‘little birds’ of war may turn out to be doves of peace.