DAVOS: SECRETS, MONEY, POWER & POLICY

Davos is hosting a historic event with global leaders, including Trump and Prime Minister Starmer, focusing on geopolitical tensions and economic collaboration. Trump’s controversial stance on Greenland raises concerns, reflecting broader issues in world trade and the shifting international landscape that requires unity among European nations.

The VENEZUELA AFFAIR

Is it a policy? Is it opportunism? Is it oil? Is it vengeance? What are the goals? Does anyone really know and how ill it end? What else is involved?

2026 RUSSIA’S WORST YEAR?

The Analyst looks at the way Russian influence and power are crumbling as it becomes clear it has no military way to win and its economy fails it.

IRAN ON THE BRINK?

A second revolution in Iran? Is an imperial restoration on the cards? Current crashing, inflation rampant and there’s no water…something has to give?

THIS TELLS RUSSIA: YOU SHALL NOT PASS!

This is no ordinary defence line. Its a statement of intent and designed to make Russia think, and once they have ignored their own obvious conclusions it will rip them to shreds- if they ever get there.

2025: THE YEAR THE WAR RADICALLY CHANGED

The war has changed dramatically, from the main players, to the politics, to the battlefield. But perhaps more than ever on the strategic economic front where Russia is bleeding slowly to death.

HOW EUROPE WINS & AMERICA LOSES IF THEY WITHDRAW

Its time I think, to face the bottom line of what happens if America actually withdraws from Europe – I’ll tell you why its unlikely to go and why we shouldn’t be too bothered if it did leave militarily. Europe+ is a group of willing nations. We have the problem of Hungary, a nation so […]

END OF AN ERA: US NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY PRO RUSSIA, ANTI EUROPE

The U.S. National Security Strategy document has sparked outrage among some GOP senators for neglecting Russia as a threat and vilifying democratic Europe. The policy signals a stark shift to isolationism and a radical undermining of NATO.

SUPPORTING UKRAINE WITHOUT AMERICA

The article discusses Europe’s challenges in supporting Ukraine if U.S. aid ceases, emphasizing the need for cooperation in defense capabilities, intelligence sharing, and military supplies, while addressing procurement issues and evolving warfare demands for long-term security.

FP-5 FLAMINGO UPDATE

#UkrainianView
FP-5 Flamingo is now just a month from IOC, and Ukraine starts to exceed Russian capabilities, it’s a watershed moment in the war as a whole. Meanwhile Russian system fail as budgets are slashed.

GOLD: THE LAST GAMBLE OF A DESPERATE RUSSIA

Selling off the gold reserves is a sign of severe economic distress, and there’s no way to normalize such a move. Russian & Putin are nearing end game and the oligarchs know it.

WHY? PEACE PLANS, LEAKS & PUTIN’S GAME

Vladimir Putin is a manipulator, using tactics of distraction and misdirection to achieve his goals. The recent ‘peace deal’ talks and complexities surrounding U.S. sanctions against Russia illustrate a calculated effort to maintain control and avoid serious repercussions, primarily influenced by Donald Trump’s actions.

ITS A MATTER OF PRINCIPLES

Principles matter, they are the core of everything. If we don’t abide by our own, what are we? Not just as individuals but as nations. Ukraine stands on principle and so must we.
How this mess of a peace document happened is as much about a lack of them, as fighting it is about keeping to them.

RUSSIA DROWNING IN A SEA OF OIL

With Russia facing severe sanctions impacting its economy, Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt Russia’s oil exports and refinery systems, threaten its financial stability and ability to sustain military operations amid fast declining oil revenues.

ONE WEAPON COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING FOR UKRAINE; & ITS RUSSIAN

The Russian Novotor cruise missile has a history that if Ukraine plays its cards well, could see it equipped with Tomahawks, but is also a threat to NATO

THE REAL STORY: HOW NATO ENDED RUSSIAS ESTONIAN AIR INCURSIONS

NATO had had enough. It was time to teach the Russians a lesson and make it plain these air incursions were no longer going to be tolerated. When the Russians obliged NATO sprang its trap. This is what happened.

THE VIEW FROM THE KREMLIN WINDOW

Vladimir Putin, after 25 years in power, remains determined to win the war with Ukraine despite facing internal and external pressures. He prioritizes legacy, power, and control while distrusting advisors and grappling with financial challenges.

THE ‘STAN’ GAMBIT: RUSSIAN POWER FADES AWAY

Russia expanded control over Kazakhstan during the 18th and 19th centuries, leading to its incorporation into the USSR. After gaining independence in 1991, Kazakhstan now diversifies geopolitical relations away from Russia, seeking partnerships with the U.S. amid Russia’s declining influence.

RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR LUNACY

The Russians measure their worth by nuclear weapons. They have done for nearly 80 years. It merely masks their innate inadequacies. Yet its the most dangerous and potentially worrying aspect of their approach to the world around them.

POST-WAR RUSSIA: A SCENARIO

Putin is dead, the regime paralyzed, which of the former empire’s republics will rush for independence?

UKRAINE & GRIPEN: SECURING THE FUTURE

Ukraine has chosen the Gripen E aircraft for its future air defense, emphasizing its suitability for dispersed operations, cost-effectiveness, and advanced electronic warfare capabilities, crucial for countering Russian aerial threats in ongoing conflict.

WHY UKRAINE WILL WIN & RUSSIA WILL LOSE

The post argues that Ukraine’s alliance with Western nations has strengthened its military capabilities against Russia, whose failures in industry and true alliances are evident. Ukraine’s innovation positions it to emerge as a major power in Europe post-war.

THE CRIMEA GAMBIT: UKRAINE’S STRATEGY FOR ITS RETURN

Ukraine has carried out a successful war against the Russians across Crimea, effectively neutralizing it as an operating military resource and attritting countless russian weapons and EW/radar systems at low cost. Its eventual return is the goal.

DANGER: PREPARING FOR THE WRONG WAR

The Analyst emphasizes the importance of understanding historical conflicts and their implications on current military strategies, arguing for proactive adaptations in warfare technology, particularly emphasizing the evolving role of drones and the need for constant development in defense systems.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN DEATH SPIRAL

After World War 2, the Netherlands thrived economically due to natural gas, leading to what economists call ‘Dutch Disease.’ Conversely, Russia’s reliance on resource extraction under Putin resulted in economic decline and impending crisis amid ongoing military conflict and sanctions that may soon bring Russias doom.

SOMETHING IS CHANGING AND RUSSIA IS LOSING

The situation in Russia is changing and I believe the war is now lost. They must now be convinced they’ve been defeated, and bring it to an end.

NATO: STANDING UP TO PUTIN

Europe must decide to shoot down Russian aircraft that blatantly enter NATO airspace and make it clear to Russia we intend to do so. This is why…

POWER & CORRUPTION IN THE RUSSIAN ARMY: THE FSB IS KING

Corruption is endemic in Russia’s military. The FSB uses it to further Putin’s own ends and ensure his survival.

KINETIC SANCTIONS & ECONOMIC STRIFE

Russian’s are feeling the impact of Ukraine’s strategic strikes, the oil industry is in a mess and Russia increasingly desperate to stop the situation getting out of control.

UKRAINE’S NEW WEAPONS: RUSSIA, BE AFRAID!

Ukraine is about to receive some key weapons systems that are going to have a serious impact on the war against Russian aggression. The tables are turning.

RUSSIA IS DYING & THERE’S NO GOING BACK

The post discusses the doom cycle of Russia’s population collapse, the ethnic disparities and Russia’s self identity, now in danger. Putin’s regime has created a dire predicament there’s no coming back from.

RUSSIA’S ARMY: CORRUPTION, BARBARITY & INCENTIVISED TO FAIL

Russias Army is in a ruinous state, held together by fear, bribery and corruption.It must surely break under its own failures and basic inhumanity. Morally bankrupt and brutal, it’s creaking under the weight of its own mismanagement.

RUSSIA-CHINA COOPERATION DEEPER, DARKER, DANGEROUS

China and Russia’s growing cooperation poses long-term challenges, as China increasingly controls Russia through technology and military collaboration, potentially reducing Russia to a subordinate role while advancing their mutual strategic interests against the West.

CHINA: THE THREAT IS REAL

The threat from China and its single minded approach to produce the war equipment it needs to win against the US & its allies in the event of a conflict over Taiwan is a stark contrast to America. How is America ever expecting to save Taiwan?

DOES THE SSBN STILL MAKE SENSE?

The article discusses the evolving debate surrounding the necessity and effectiveness of nuclear-powered submarines (SSBNs) in the context of advancing drone technology, highlighting their costs, strategic value, and potential obsolescence in future warfare scenarios.

AUKUS AT A CROSSROADS?

The AUKUS submarine deal faces uncertainty as the US struggles with its own submarine production goals. Australia risks a significant gap in defense capabilities, potentially delaying operational nuclear submarines until the late 2030s or longer.

CRISIS? WHAT CRISIS? PUTIN DOUBLES DOWN

The Russian government is attempting to conceal a looming financial crisis through restrictive laws on economic data. Defaults on loans are surging, and while trying to manage perceptions, the economic situation worsens, revealing deep inequities and a collapsing economy.

THE ANGLO-GERMAN DEFENCE PACT

The article discusses the significance of recent UK-Germany defense treaties in response to escalating security concerns, particularly regarding Russia, emphasizing the need for rapid drone development and military cooperation in Europe amid global instability.

UKRAINE WILL WIN

The analysis highlights Trump’s inadequate support for Ukraine, contrasting it with the critical impacts of US military aid. Despite past defeats, Ukraine is now better equipped and poised for victory, thanks to increased assistance and innovative strategies.

TRUMP UNDER PRESSURE DOES THE MINIMUM

Tump blew hard but did next to nothing to help Ukraine, leaving Russia almost a four month window to exploit. Moscow rejoiced at the weak response over sanctions, but the weapons on the way to Ukraine can only hurt Russia even more.

PUTIN: TRAPPED WITH NOWHERE TO GO

Putin has placed himself at the centre of a web of lies and unreality, cut off from ‘real’ life and obsessed with his legacy and winning the war he started. He rejected peace and now is trapped in doom cycle of his own making.

IMPACT OF THE NORTHWOOD DECLARATION on European Security

The Northwood Declaration, signed by Macron and Starmer, establishes a significant Anglo-French nuclear partnership, affirming joint defense commitments in response to threats, while emphasizing independent capabilities. This strengthens Europe’s security amid changing global alliances and addresses Russian aggression.

PUTIN’S REGIME STARTS TO CRACK

Putin’s regime is facing multiple issues simultaneously, a long expected series of events that show the regime is making mistakes and Putin is not as strong as western observers think he is.

russia’s federation is a lie

The Russian Federation emerged from the Soviet era, marked by territorial conquests and oppressive policies, notably during Stalin’s rule. It continues to exert control over former territories, resisting the notion of independence among its constituent nations.

PUTIN’S WEAKEST MOMENT TELLS US THE END IS COMING

Putin’s recent address highlights his concerns about Russia’s deteriorating war, economic situation, and public discontent. His proposed defense spending cuts appear as empty promises, reflecting his fear of losing support amid growing hardships for citizens.

IRAN: WHO WON? LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES

Who won the Iran-Israel conflict? What lessons have been learned and are they the right ones? The world enters a dangerous phase in human existence, stress at every point could lead to dangerous conflict almost anywhere.

Reimagining NATO: Can Europe Stand Alone?

The NATO summit prompted reflection on NATO’s future, revealing vulnerabilities and lessons learned regarding military readiness. The necessity for European self-reliance and a choice between continued reliance on the U.S. or a new path for defense strategy is emphasized.

RUSSIA’S ECONOMY: BRACE FOR IMPACT

Russia’s economy is in deep trouble, with high inflation, collapsing industries, and a banking sector on the brink of insolvency. A looming financial crisis threatens stability, exacerbated by unsustainable government spending and the war’s consequences.

UKRAINE HOLDS BACK RUSSIAN OFFENSIVES

Russia’s summer offensive has faltered, facing logistical issues, outdated artillery, and significant troop losses. While Ukrainian forces continue to hold their ground, Russia struggles with supply and morale, leading to dire circumstances for its soldiers.

WHY RUSSIA WON’T WIN

The post discusses Russia’s significant military challenges in Ukraine and its dwindling resources, contrasting historical perceptions of Russian power with current failures. It predicts Ukraine’s eventual victory, citing international support and Russia’s declining position.

WHO IS WINNING THE WAR?

The analysis outlines the complexities of the Ukraine-Russia war, highlighting Ukraine’s initial victories, subsequent setbacks, and evolving challenges. It emphasizes Russia’s economic decline and Ukraine’s resilient strategies, forecasting Russia’s eventual collapse despite territorial gains.

UK SUBMARINES & AUKUS: A NAVAL REVOLUTION?

The UK strategic defense review outlines ambitious plans for up to 12 AUKUS submarines, facing challenges like production capacity, financial constraints, and recruitment that could hinder timely implementation amid increasing global threats and the need for naval modernization.

TRANSFORMER:UKRAINE CHANGES WARFARE AGAIN

Ukraine’s innovative drone operations have significantly impacted modern warfare, attacking Russian strategic aviation with unprecedented effectiveness. Such bold tactics could inspire similar actions globally, urging nations to reconsider their defense strategies against unexpected threats.

Deterrence Evolving: Nuclear, CYBER & AI

The evolving nature of deterrence in cyber warfare and nuclear capabilities is creating complexities previously unimagined. With AI integration, nations face challenges in maintaining stability, as the potential for catastrophic conflict increases and human control diminishes.

FLASHPOINT: TANKER TENSIONS

Western sanctions have successfully targeted over 700 Russian grey fleet tankers, significantly impacting oil exports. Despite risks, Russia may engage more aggressively to safeguard these vessels, highlighting broader economic vulnerabilities and reduced operational capacity.

PUTIN ROLLS THE DICE

The events of May 11-19, 2025, signify a critical juncture in the Russo-Ukrainian War, highlighting Putin’s miscalculations, failed negotiations, and Ukraine’s strengthened military preparedness for upcoming confrontations, signaling a pivotal shift in the conflict.

THE EQUALIZATION OF POWER

The past 25 years revealed numerous US military blunders, with implications seen in Ukraine and the Houthis. Advances in technology have shifted power dynamics, demonstrating vulnerabilities in traditional military strengths and challenging the status quo of great power superiority.

THE INDO-PAKISTAN CONFLICT; STRIKES, LOSSES & CAUSES

A sharp conflict whose details may surprise, Pakistan displaying cutting edge Chinese weaponry, cyber attacks and leaving India slightly red faced. Behind it a dangerous water war looms.

RUSSO-UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATIONS

The very way in which Ukraine became independent is worth anyone’s reading time. It was semi-chaotic and took the Russians completely off guard – it really wasn’t what Moscow was expecting, and the arguments over who got control of the Black Sea Fleet came close to fighting breaking out. Yet in the end the Ukrainians […]

GLOBAL OVERVIEW: CHANGE & CONFLICT

The 80th anniversary of WW2’s end highlights America’s decline and Russia’s facade of strength amidst internal turmoil. Global conflicts persist, with Europe possibly rising to fill the power vacuum left by the faltering U.S.

EUROPE+ LOOKS TO LONG RANGE WEAPONS

The Ukraine war highlights the necessity of long-range weapons, prompting NATO and Europe+ nations to enhance their strategic arsenals. Collaborative projects like ELSA aim to develop effective systems, demonstrating urgency and cooperation amid evolving threats.

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE: ITS GETTING WORSE

Russian finances are deteriorating, marked by a sharp decline in oil revenue, presenting a $26.77 billion deficit. Inflation continues to rise, worsened by a manipulated ruble. Without intervention, Russia faces bankruptcy and severe economic collapse.

WHAT NEXT FOR UKRAINE?

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues. Russian drone & missile attacks targeting civilians increase. Ukraine is improving its defenses, producing equipment domestically, and maintaining resilience, while navigating complex international dynamics, including U.S. politics and support.

RUSSIA’S NEXT WAR?

Russia is militarizing its border with NATO, preparing for potential conflicts while maintaining ambitions for expansion. Bolstered by an aggressive economy, it seeks test case wars, notably in the Baltic, to gauge NATO’s response and exploit perceived weaknesses.

AUKUS: THE NEW REALITY MAKES IT A HARDER SELL

The U.S. Navy’s shipbuilding struggles are endangering the AUKUS submarine program, raising concerns for Australia about reliance on U.S. systems. Australia faces challenges in workforce training and costs escalations, questioning the partnership’s viability and future direction.

DISENGAGING AMERICA: NATO

The Western world is split on disengaging from the US, with Japan and South Korea relying on American protection against China, while Europe+ faces challenges with Russia. The argument emphasizes Europe’s need for self-reliance and a restructured NATO without US control.

THE TAURUS CONUNDRUM

The Taurus missile, featuring the advanced MEPHISTO warhead, offers precision strike capabilities. However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declined to supply them to Ukraine due to escalation risks. Now things have changed and the new Chancellor is going ahead.

ARMING EUROPE? CAN IT GO IT ALONE?

European defense manufacturers are thriving due to distrust in the US under Trump, prompting a shift towards domestic military procurement. The EU plans to invest €800 billion, enhancing economic growth and defense capabilities across member states.

UKRAINIAN STRATEGY & TACTICS STYMIE RUSSIANS

The recent loss of an F-16 emphasizes Ukraine’s growing confidence in air strikes despite risks. Ukraine aims to deny Russian advances, but challenges remain due to Russian logistics and economy, potentially leading to significant shifts in power dynamics.

NOT LONG NOW: OIL IS RUSSIA’S ACHILLES HEEL

Achilles, a legendary Greek warrior, symbolizes invulnerability with his ‘Achilles heel.’ Russia, relying heavily on oil, faces economic disaster due to falling prices, military stalemates, and a struggle for survival amid systemic corruption and leadership failure.

US DISENGAGING FROM NATO SPARKS AMERICAN ANGST

General Cavolli’s Senate testimony highlighted concerns over U.S. military withdrawal from Europe, nuclear command issues, and shifting defense strategies. The perceived diminishing U.S. role may lead Europeans to seek self-reliance in defense procurement, significantly impacting U.S. influence.

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE: THE END IS COMING

The Russian economy faces significant challenges due to currency manipulation and diminishing income. While the ruble appears strong, its valuation is artificial, contributing to rising costs, inflation, and an unsustainable war economy, leading toward potential collapse.

DRONE WAR: WHO HAS THE UPPER HAND?

The war in Ukraine showcases Ukraine’s tactical drone superiority, surpassing Russia’s capabilities. Innovations in drone technology and mass production have allowed Ukraine to target deep within Russia, while Russia struggles tactically, its strategic attacks are deadly.

BIG UKRAINIAN ARMY CHANGES

The post discusses Ukraine’s military struggles and criticisms, detailing coordination issues, the implementation of Army Corps for improved command structures, and the challenges of maintaining effective communication and morale among diverse brigades during ongoing conflict.

RUSSIA: STRATEGIC INFLECTION POINT

Russia faces a dilemma between seeking a ceasefire to stabilize and pushing for immediate victory against Ukraine, believing time is limited. Meanwhile, Ukraine strengthens its military, while the U.S. struggles with ineffective diplomacy, complicating prospects for peace.

UKRAINE’S COUNTER ATTACKS GAIN MOMENTUM

Ukrainian forces, under new command, have successfully recaptured ground along the eastern front. Russia faces manpower shortages and logistical issues, indicating significant weaknesses. Ukraine’s recent advances have boosted morale, while their air power continues to improve.

UKRAINE CAN WIN

Talks in Saudi Arabia aim to resolve the ongoing war, but both Russia and Ukraine remain deadlocked. Ukraine’s prolonged strategies focus on gaining time and resource depletion, fully supported by Europe+ like never before. Ignoring them is a huge strategic error.

THE GREAT BETRAYAL: IT’S ALL ABOUT CHINA

Kissinger knew what was doing in 1971, peeling a disgruntled China from Soviet power was relatively simple. Trump hasn’t a clue what he’s doing trying to peel Russia from China in todays radically shifted geopolitical world.

UKRAINE’S SPY SATELLITE DEPENDENCY IS OURS TOO

The current geopolitical climate, particularly in space, is rapidly evolving. The U.S. satellite capabilities are limited and overshadowed by emerging commercial options, urging Europe to enhance its own satellite resources for better intelligence sharing and security.

TOTAL FAILURE: THE ART OF NO DEAL

Trump’s failure to negotiate effectively with Putin led to minimal gains for Ukraine and significant concessions to Russia. Despite this, Ukraine’s resilience and Europe’s support signal a potential shift, indicating a stronger future for Ukraine.

EUROPE ISN’T WASTING TIME

European nations, led by Germany and Poland, are significantly increasing defense spending in response to geopolitical pressures. A notable shift is occurring as Europe mobilizes military aid for Ukraine, signaling a newfound commitment to defense.

PUTIN CARRIES ON REGARDLESS

Putin miscalculated the fallout from his Ukraine invasion, leading to a united Europe supporting Ukraine. Despite bluster and supply issues, Russia risks economic collapse while clinging to a prolonged conflict amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics.

NUKES ARE THE ANSWER – MANY SEE NO CHOICE

The return of Cold War tensions is disappointing, with nations like Poland considering nuclear arms due to distrust in American support. As global dynamics shift, nuclear proliferation may increase, posing serious implications for future security.

FALL: AMERICA’S EMPIRE IN DECLINE

Empires rise and fall primarily through military power and trade dominance. The text explores the decline of empires, emphasizing the current fragility of American influence stemming from recent policies and diminished alliances.

THE END OF THE KURSK ADVENTURE

The Kursk Campaign, initially seen as a morale boost for Ukraine, has led to significant territorial gains but overconfidence resulted in strategic errors. Russian forces have regained momentum, suggesting an impending Ukrainian withdrawal amid talk of a ceasefire.

IS AUKUS STILL VIABLE?

The situation in Ukraine raises questions about American reliability in military alliances. Australia may reconsider their dependence on the US amidst procurement issues and changing geopolitical dynamics, debating alternatives for submarine programs and technological collaborations.

EUROPE+: THE NEW AGE OF EUROPEAN DEFENCE TAKES SHAPE

In a week of significant political turmoil, Ukraine’s ally responses crystallized amid concerns over America’s NATO involvement. Calls for a more independent European defense framework emerged, highlighting the need for institutional reforms and enhanced military capabilities.

THE NOT SO ROCKY ROAD AHEAD FOR UKRAINE

The U.S. aims for peace with Russia, compromising Ukraine’s military support. Ukraine, while producing more arms domestically, struggles without American intelligence. European backing remains strong, but the future is uncertain amidst ongoing pressures and demands.

EUROPE STANDS UP: DEFENCE IS ITS PRIORITY

European leaders are collaborating on defense strategies, focusing on Ukraine, as the UK plans to enhance military capabilities. The EU’s €800 billion plan seeks to bolster NATO and support Ukraine, despite challenges from the US.

WELCOME TO THE NEW WORLD ORDER

The United Nations ideals demolished as American leadership shifted towards authoritarianism, undermining global democratic efforts. European nations seek independence from the U.S. while emphasizing Ukraine’s resilience against Russia despite internal challenges.

THE WORLD HAS CHANGED FOREVER

The article argues that the global order has drastically shifted, particularly after the U.S. presidency’s failure to maintain alliances and uphold democracy. The author emphasizes the need for resilience and cooperation among allies in facing new geopolitical challenges.

WHAT EUROPE NEEDS TO DO TO WIN

A unified European military, equipped with advanced reconnaissance and communication systems, could effectively counter a Russian invasion, but must enhance air defense and logistics capabilities while fostering trust and cooperation amongst member nations for optimal preparedness.

THE NUCLEAR PROBLEM: EUROPE, UKRAINE & US WITHDRAWAL

The potential U.S. military withdrawal from Europe raises concerns about nuclear deterrence, necessitating European collaboration. France and the UK may need to integrate their nuclear capabilities, while Ukraine contemplates developing its own deterrent amid ongoing threats.

RUSSIANS HIT BY UKRAINIANS AT POKROVSK

In recent special operations, Ukrainian forces regained key positions near Pokrovsk, addressing issues in troop leadership and morale. While facing effective Russian attacks, they consider strategies to improve defense against glide bombs and sustain control.

A UNITED EUROPEAN MILITARY AT LAST?

The long-standing idea of a European unified military command encounters challenges due to NATO’s established dominance. Historical tensions around national sovereignty impede progress, while current geopolitical dynamics emphasize the need for Europe to strengthen its defense capabilities independently.

UKRAINE: A BETTER POSITION THAN RUSSIA

The Munich aftermath: Ukraine’s strong position contrasts with Russia’s struggles. Europe and Ukraine’s newfound unity could reshape negotiations, as Ukraine asserts its independence and military strength against Russian aggression. Europe finds its voice at last.

INDIA: RISING GREAT POWER, CHINESE RIVAL

India’s defense budget increased by 9.5% to $78.8 billion, but only $22 billion is available for new equipment due to high personnel costs. The military faces challenges from China and Pakistan amid evolving geopolitical dynamics.

47 UPENDS DECADES OF NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

The “Iron Dome for America” Executive Order mandates a comprehensive missile defense system, reflecting significant defense ambitions. This escalation intensifies the nuclear arms race, motivating countries like Russia and China to expand their arsenals, heightening global tensions.

RUSSIAN BANKING COLLAPSE INEVITABLE

Russia’s war funding shows deep economic troubles, with state finances rapidly crumbling under rising costs and sanctions. Putin faces imminent banking collapse while facing dwindling resources. Continuous conflict risks worsening economic despair amidst international opposition.

AMERICAN DEFENSE – LIKE IT OR NOT WHAT THEY SPEND MATTERS

The new Congress plans to increase defense spending by $200 billion but faces funding challenges and potential cuts. Congress debates the necessity of large carriers versus smaller, more versatile platforms amid rising concerns over efficiency and competition with China.

UKRAINE’S OIL WAR ON RUSSIA

Ukraine’s recent drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have significantly disrupted Russia’s oil processing capacity, compromising military logistics, and raising domestic unrest. Simultaneously, sanctions exacerbate Russia’s economic vulnerability and highlight defense shortcomings amidst winter challenges.

PUTIN PLAYS HIS OPENING GAMBIT FOR PEACE TALKS

Putin’s statements on peace talks reflect strategic posturing amidst ongoing conflict. While expressing willingness to negotiate, he imposes unrealistic conditions, undermining Ukraine and questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy, complicating any potential discussions on resolution.

CHINA: TAIWAN INVASION IS INEVITABLE

The Chinese military is rapidly advancing towards an invasion capability of Taiwan, driven by economic turmoil, with military preparation expected to peak by 2027. Taiwan’s defenses face substantial challenges amid growing geopolitical tensions.

OBSESSION IS DESTROYING IRAN

The Iranian political system is characterized by a theocratic republic under the Supreme Leader, resulting in significant corruption and inefficiency. Despite vast gas reserves, the nation faces energy crises due to poor governance and external conflicts it has largely created itself.

ROCKY ROAD TO A ‘PEACE DEAL’

The US Administration has tasked Ambassador Keith Kellog with negotiating peace in Ukraine within 100 days. While Russia believes it can achieve breakthroughs by autumn, significant economic challenges may affect Putin’s decisions amidst mounting pressure and potential sanctions from the US.

SIXTH GEN FIGHTERS: THE RACE IS ON

Various nations, including the US, China, and European countries, are racing to develop a Sixth Generation fighter aircraft, focusing on advanced capabilities and AI integration, despite escalating costs and strategic challenges in maintaining technological superiority.

AUKUS UPDATE JANUARY 2025

AUKUS appears to progress as intended for Australia, yet challenges exist, particularly regarding US submarine production delays, jeopardizing delivery timelines. Successful containment of China relies on resolving these industrial issues to meet military needs effectively.

WAR & PEACE: WHY A DIPLOMATIC END IS UNLIKELY

The ongoing war in Ukraine signifies a complicated reality where peace is unlikely without definitive outcomes. Options include Russia’s complete victory, Ukraine’s outright success, or a change in Putin’s regime, with trust issues remaining central.

ECONOMIC REVELATIONS: RUSSIA IS WORSE OFF THAN WE THINK

A recent analysis highlights severe issues in the Russian financial system due to the Kremlin’s forced loans to the armaments industry, risking a major economic crisis exacerbated by sanctions and unsustainable borrowing, potentially leading to widespread bankruptcy.

UKRAINIAN MOBILIZATION

The author expresses frustration with Ukraine’s youth’s lack of engagement in defense efforts, emphasizing ineffective mobilization policies and poor messaging, while urging the importance of their participation in the war for the nation’s future.

THE ECONOMIC VICTORY UKRAINE CAN WIN

Compares historical wars Ukraine’s struggle against Russia, emphasizing resilience and adapting strategies. Ukraine’s economy and defense industries are surprisingly thriving despite adversity, resembling historical battles where underestimating opponents led to failure.

THE AIR WAR: CAN UKRAINE CHANGE ANYTHING?

This article analyzes the current status and effectiveness of Ukraine’s air force, detailing various aircraft in service, their limitations, and the challenges faced in achieving air superiority against Russian forces amidst ongoing conflict.

RUSSIA DEVELOPING STRATEGIC DRONE SWARMS

In December 2024, Ukraine reported Russia enhancing its Geran drones with basic AI for better target recognition and navigation, indicating a shift towards mass drone swarms. This evolution raises concerns over future autonomous capabilities and potential escalation in drone warfare.

UKRAINIAN DETERRENCE

The content discusses various levels of deterrence in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, highlighting Ukraine’s effective strategies, such as naval operations and attacks on Crimea, which have significantly altered Russia’s military posture and capabilities.

NATO’s TACTICAL NUCLEAR UPGRADE

On December 18, 2024, the U.S. completed a $9 billion nuclear warhead upgrade, modernizing the B-61-12. Despite various safeguards, NATO’s consensus requirement for use complicates effective deterrence against Russian threats in crisis situations.

THE RUSSIAN PLAYBOOK – HOW TO DESTABILIZE YOUR NEIGHBORS

Historically, Russia has employed subterfuge and manipulation to maintain control over former territories. With current tactics targeting Transnistria, it seeks to destabilize neighboring countries while fostering resentment against Ukraine and the West, showcasing ongoing imperial ambitions.

KURSK COUNTER OFFENSIVE!

Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks in Kursk Oblast, utilizing coordinated ground tactics and advanced drone operations, while facing Russian counteroffensives. This dynamic situation suggests potential strategic significance for both sides, with implications for future military engagement.

MOLDOVA & TRANSNISTRIA: RUSSIA’S NEXT LOSS?

Moldavia declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 but faced economic turmoil and Russian influence. Transnistria, unrecognized but occupied by Russian troops, declines Moldovan aid amidst a gas supply crisis, raising existential questions.

VICTORY? I THINK NOT

The ongoing war in Ukraine has seen significant Russian losses and failed strategies despite Putin’s claims of progress. The situation reflects increasing desperation and state control in Russia, with dire economic consequences even as Putin celebrates.

RUSSIA MAKES THINGS WORSE

Russia has shifted from mobilization to financial inducements for military recruitment, offering high initial contracts but slashing compensation for injuries and deaths, creating economic distortion and societal divisions amid rising troop casualties, revealing systemic weaknesses.

RUSSIAN DEPRAVITY MUST BE PUNISHED

The ongoing war in Ukraine, driven by Putin, has led to over 137,000 confirmed war crimes, including torture and attacks on civilians. Justice for these crimes is essential to combat the growing culture of impunity worldwide.

ARMS, AUTARKY & AGGRESSION

This is a little different, my thoughts on the history of Russia somewhat concatenated and shortened, as to why I think doom awaits Putin and Russia. Why what it does is nothing new and will end the same way it always has.

SHIFT IN POWER: ISRAEL v. IRAN

The regional dynamics have shifted dramatically due to Israel’s extensive military actions in Syria, neutralizing threats from the old regime and enhancing its offensive capabilities against Iran. This escalation leaves Iran cornered, intensifying internal and external tensions.

SEASONS GREETINGS

SEASONS GREETINGS I’ll be posting again from around the 30th December

PUTIN UNDER PRESSURE

Putin’ aimed to project stability amidst economic turmoil, revealing inflation concerns and interest rates maintained at 21%. War has exacerbated issues, affecting transport and manufacturing. Public pressure mounts as realities of conflict worsen.

PEACE TALKS? THE RUSSIA PROBLEM

The post discusses the complex dynamics of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine amid ongoing conflict. It emphasizes Russia’s deceptive tactics and the necessity for the West to stand firm while seeking a potential demilitarized zone as a compromise.

RUSSIAN OIL DISASTER

The sinking of outdated Russian tankers in the Black Sea highlights dangerous maritime practices amid the war in Ukraine, exposing environmental and economic risks while illustrating Russia’s deep reliance on an aging fleet for oil transport.

NK TROOPS IN RUSSIA: A NEW THREAT TO EUROPE?

North Korean soldiers are observed fighting in Russia, displaying poor training and motivation. Questions arise about Western responses to this development, sanctions on NK, and potential future complications if troops enter Ukraine.

US LONG RANGE STRIKE STRATEGY

China and Russia’s advancements in hypersonic weapons have shifted military strategies, prompting the U.S. to develop systems like Dark Eagle for deterrence against emerging threats, particularly in the Pacific and Europe.

UKRAINE’S MID-LONG RANGE STRATEGY

Ukraine’s missile and drone strategy has rapidly evolved in response to the war, developing advanced capabilities and targeting key Russian assets, fundamentally altering future warfare concepts, and providing lessons for Western militaries on agility and innovation in arms development.

PUTIN’S RUSSIA WILL FALL

The article discusses the mounting internal and external pressures on the Russian regime, highlighting economic decline, military shortcomings, and geopolitical isolation. It concludes that awareness of these issues may lead to significant changes in Russia’s future.

FRONTLINES CONTINUE TO RETREAT UNDER PRESSURE

The current military situation in Ukraine remains tense, with significant Russian advances near Pokrovsk amidst heavy casualties. External geopolitical dynamics, especially concerning American aid and domestic pressure on Putin, further complicate the unfolding conflict.

WAR IN SPACE: NOW NEXT LEVEL

The article discusses the critical role of satellites in modern warfare, focusing on China’s advances in space capabilities and its potential threats to US and allied systems, particularly through intelligence gathering and offensive strategies.

IRANIAN MILITARY IN TURMOIL OVER SYRIA LOSS

The fall of Syria has exposed deep divisions within Iran’s military leadership, causing chaos and blame. Supreme Leader Khomeini is alarmed by the regime’s vulnerability, with internal dissent rising and a potential shift in U.S. sanctions looming.

A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE WAR ON THE GROUND

The analysis highlights the stark realities of the ongoing war, emphasizing Russia’s significant losses and challenges in manpower and economy, while Ukraine strategically defends its territory, indicating a potential shift in the war’s outcome.

RUSSIA’S STRATEGIC DISASTER IN SYRIA

The analysis highlights Russia’s significant strategic loss in Syria, particularly regarding its military bases in Tartus and Latakia, impairing its influence in the Middle East and Africa, largely due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

LESSONS FOR N.KOREA COME HARD IN UKRAINE

North Korean troops, sold to Russia, are being integrated into Russian units, causing significant communication and operational challenges. The situation reflects Russia’s desperate manpower shortages, impacting their military effectiveness amidst Ukraine’s strategic advancements.

WAR IN THE PACIFIC? PART 3

In this last segment I want to look at three issues that will determine if China can even mount an invasion of Taiwan. China is economically in the worst position it’s been in since 1980. The property market, at one point driving 25% of its GDP has fallen into collapse. Giant property companies like Evergrand […]

WAR IN THE PACIFIC? PART 2

The relationship between the U.S. and China reflects trade imbalances, tariffs, and strategic conflicts, with China leveraging its economic power globally while expanding its military capabilities and rare earth element control, posing significant challenges for American competitiveness and security.

WAR IN THE PACIFIC? Part 1

The US-China relationship is marked by economic interdependence and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly over Taiwan and the South China Sea. With the US enhancing military presence and weapons systems in the region, the situation remains precarious.

EVEN MORE BAD NEWS FOR RUSSIAN ECONOMY

RUSSIA REALLY IS IN AN ALL ENVELOPING ECONOMIC MESS ORIGIN The problem the Russians are facing now began in July. In 2020 to help Russians back on their feet and to boost the flagging construction industries and property markets, Russia introduced a fixed rate 6% mortgage rate, effectively subsidized by the states oil and gas […]

AUKUS UPS ITS GAME

The AUKUS framework has progressed beyond the submarine deal to include the HyFliTE Project.

MAKING SANCTIONS WORSE FOR RUSSIA

The next US administration’s strategies against Russia involve military aid and tightening sanctions to pressure Moscow. Efforts may focus on reducing Western corporations’ presence in Russia, monitoring oil smuggling, and restricting dual-use electronics to hinder military capabilities.

RUSSIA: RELAPSE, REBUILD & REVENGE. WILL THE CYCLE REPEAT?

The long-term implications of Russia’s military failures and its inability to rebuild effectively post-war. It predicts a cycle of decline for Russia, emphasizing the importance of Ukraine’s military innovation and support from the West to prevent future aggression.

THE AIR OF DESPERATION HANGS OVER RUSSIA

This weekend gone has been one of increasing desperation for Russia. The Kursk salient has been a catastrophic graveyard of Russian ambitions. Overwhelmed by tough defences, lack of equipment, lack of manpower, terrible planning and bad commanders, all under huge pressure from Putin personally. The mud has finally arrived and the weather is worse along […]

STRATEGIC SHIFT: FROM THE V2 TO THE ORESHNIK IRBM

The development of ballistic missiles, from Nazi Germany’s V2 to modern nuclear strategies, reflects a complex arms race involving technological advancements, military doctrines, and international treaties, ultimately leading to a precarious balance of power and ongoing tensions between global powers.

POLAND’S MILITARY MODERNISES: A RISING NATO POWER

Poland, historically victimized by its neighbors, is now intensifying its military capabilities amid fears of Russian aggression. With plans for significant military expansion and modernization, Poland aims to become NATO’s leading military power in Europe by 2035.

Russia’s Currency Collapse: BIG TROUBLE AHEAD

The Russian Government suspended currency trading after the rouble collapsed 30% since August, indicating a severe economic crisis. Lack of confidence, soaring inflation, and dependence on USD for trade exacerbate the situation. Resolution requires ending the war and sanctions.

PUTIN V. TRUMP: BATTLE FOR UKRAINE’S LEGACY

As Trump takes office, the shifting geopolitical landscape centers on the war in Ukraine. Putin’s ambitions and internal struggles heighten tensions, complicating potential negotiations. Acknowledgment of Ukraine’s sovereignty is critical and proactive measures by the West remain vital for stability

UKRAINIAN & RUSSIAN TACTICS

Both sides use defined tactics to defend and attack. Are they locked in repeat?

RUSSIA’S ECONOMY WILL LOSE IT THE WAR

AS LONG AS WE KEEP SANCTIONS AND DON’T GIVE IN Imagine a vast but shallow lake. It’s sitting in the heat of runaway climate change, it’s water evaporating faster than the rivers that feed it can replace the water. That is today’s Russian economy. DECEPTION AND INFLATION The Russian people are being played. They have […]

UKRAINIANS DEFEND AS FEARS FOR THE FUTURE RISE

The UK sent around 48 newly refurbished Storm shadows to Ukraine just before the permission to use them inside Russia was granted. On the frontlines the Ukrainians carry out some remarkable defensive operations, testing the Russians to the maximum and extracting heavy casualties. In Kursk the Russians have advanced from the west and north and […]

Russian Military Struggles Amidst Sanctions and Warfare

THE GROUND WAR IS NOT GOING IN UKRAINE’S FAVOUR Ukraine struck into Russia with ATACMS both around Kursk and into Crimea yesterday. The Russians continued to make advances westward almost all along the front. Additional small gains were made in Kursk. Russians seem to be focusing on Kurakhove and preparing for another offensive operation to […]

RUSSIANS FACE TOUGH COUNTERATTACKS AS UKRAINIANS FIGHT BACK

The situation on the frontlines overall, is one of incremental but small gains for Russia. Their losses have been monumental – exceeding 80,000 in two months, far above their ability to replace them. The situation in Kursk continues to deteriorate as Russians eventually push their way from the north and west towards Malaya Locknya. The […]

UKRAINE’S DEFENCE STRATEGIES AGAINST IRBM MISSILES

What can Ukraine use to defend itself from IRBM type missiles? First of all we have to look at what the Russians are using. It appears to be a derivative of the RS-26 Rubezh missile the Russians are calling Orezhnik. This appears to be the upper two propulsion stages and the warhead bus. In range […]

UKRAINE COUNTER ATTACKS AS RUSSIAN OFFENSIVES SLOW

The weather has worsened. Russian casualty figures have dropped to their lowest in weeks. Daylight hours are approaching minimum. The cold is having its effect especially on the notoriously poorly equipped Russians. Over the past couple of days the Ukrainians have pulled off a brilliant counter attack, slicing off the Russian pincer move in the […]

THE RS26 RUBEZH IRBM

RS-26 Rubezh Overview The RS-26 Rubezh, also known as SS-X-31, (the x designates NATO considers it an experiment missile), is a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile in theory but an IRBM in practice, developed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology. It is a road-mobile, solid-fueled missile designed for strategic nuclear deterrence and high-precision strikes on […]

TACTICAL SUPERIORITY IS UKRAINIANS ACE CARD

There have been some outstanding tales of engagements along the frontline in recent weeks, that show just how much experience and training, along with initiative have made so much difference to Ukrainian forces. The ability to engage the enemy, maximise the effectiveness of limited forces against often very high numbers of vehicles, then escape intact […]

ATACMS

A quick guide to ATACMS

RED LINE CROSSED, RUSSIA CHANGES ITS NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

Putin changes nuclear doctrine but nuclear weapons stay in their bunkers

GLOBAL COMS CABLES TARGETED

Russia steps up its attack on western internet communications

THE LONG RANGE MISSILE AUTHORISATION ANALYSED

This article was written by The Analyst, for the Military & Strategic Telegram Channel. The decision that came around 4pm in Washington DC and was quickly disseminated to relevant governments, then made public, has profound implications on one hand, if Russia is to be believed. On the other hand it’s just as likely to have […]

FRONTLINE UPDATE DAY 1000

Can you believe it’s been 1,000 days? Kursk is showing number of concerning Russian advances. They have now made their way most of the distance from the north and west towards Malaya Locknya. This places Ukrainian forces in the NW in an untenable position and must surely force a rapid evacuation. Russian forces are also […]