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Posted January 6, 2026 at 12:51 pm
The 2.5 million contracts transacted yesterday and so far today saw broad activity, including a single block trade of 10k instruments last night at 8:56 PM ET that concern whether Secretary of State and former Florida Senator Marco Rubio will win the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in 2028; he’s gone from 2% to as high as 16% in just seven days. But the other side of the political aisle experienced some volumes too, with California Governor Gavin Newsom holding onto the lead for the nomination at 33%. Furthermore, the chances of the Democrats obtaining majority control of the House of Representatives is at 74%, and that question saw over 10k contracts traded yesterday. The recent rise in election trading is likely a response to the US’s military removing and arresting Venezuelan communist dictator Nicolas Maduro last weekend.
Participants also gravitated to their everyday favorites, including daily high temperatures across major US cities, instruments tied to the price performances of the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin, Ethereum and the US Dollar/Japanese Yen currency pair. Finally, the upcoming Fed decision also caught bids, as there’s an 89% likelihood that the central bank will hold rates steady at the end of this month.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 6, 2026.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
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Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Trading in digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, is especially risky and is only for individuals with a high risk tolerance and the financial ability to sustain losses. Eligibility to trade in digital asset products may vary based on jurisdiction.
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Spot currencies are not available at IBKR Singapore.
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