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Are we in a disinflationary boom?

(2026-01-10 18:59:02) 下一个

While many investors believe core PCE inflation will remain sticky this year, the risks are skewed decisively to the downside: unit labor costs are falling sharply, the labor market is soft, and output per hour is surging alongside strong GDP growth.

Together, these forces point to a disinflationary boom, which is unambiguously bullish for equities. But what does it mean for bonds and the dollar? Can inflaiton fall too much this year and beyond? How will the Fed recalibrate its policy in a jobless boom?

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