Oil Market Report - December 2025

• Global oil demand is set to rise by 830 kb/d in 2025 amid an improving macroeconomic and trade outlook. These brighter prospects extend to our 2026 forecast, which we have upgraded by 90 kb/d, to 860 kb/d y-o-y. Gasoil and jet/kerosene account for half of this year’s gains, with fuel oil losing ground to natural gas and solar in power generation. In 2026 petrochemical feedstocks will dominate growth, with their share rising to more than 60% from 40% in 2025.

• Global oil supply fell by 610 kb/d in November, extending the decline from September’s record of 109 mb/d to 1.5 mb/d. OPEC+ accounted for over three-quarters of the total decrease, led by sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela. Russian oil exports declined by 420 kb/d in November, which combined with weaker prices, slashed revenues to $11 billion, $3.6 billion below a year ago. Global oil supply growth has been cut by 100 kb/d to 3 mb/d for 2025 and by 20 kb/d for 2026 to 2.4 mb/d, to 106.2 mb/d and 108.6 mb/d, respectively.

• After weathering significant unplanned refinery outages in November, tightness in refined product markets has eased, but sanctions in 1Q26 will provide fresh challenges. The stark contrast between surging crude supplies and unexpectedly tight product markets has pushed refinery margins back to levels last seen in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Runs forecasts for 2026 have been increased to 84.4 mb/d, with growth raised to 750 kb/d.

• Global observed inventories rose to four-year highs in October, at 8 030 mb. Stock builds averaged 1.2 mb/d during the first ten months of the year. October saw a 42 mb build (+1.4 mb/d), led by higher oil on water (+83 mb), while on-land stocks declined by 41 mb, led by a 26 mb contraction in the OECD. Preliminary data for November indicates a further increase of global stocks, largely due to higher non-OECD on-land crude.

• North Sea Dated crude fell by about $1/bbl on average m-o-m, to $63.63/bbl in November, its fifth consecutive monthly decline and longest losing streak in 11 years. Near-record oil on water, soft crude fundamentals and low volatility pinned prices near four-year lows around $63/bbl despite tightening sanctions and strong diesel cracks.

Much has been made about the apparent disconnect between the current global oil surplus on the one hand and inventories near decade lows at key pricing hubs on the other. Indeed, despite record volumes of oil piling up on water, benchmark crude oil prices eased only marginally in November, with North Sea Dated last trading at around $63/bbl and WTI at $59/bbl, with lower forward disincentivizing storage. Still, the market trends have clearly been affecting prices over time, with ICE Brent down by nearly $20/bbl since January.

Observed global oil stocks rose by 424 mb from January through November, or 1.3 mb/d on average. Notably, crude oil on water has surged by 213 mb since end-August, as sanctioned barrels struggled to find buyers, record long-haul shipments from the Americas to Asia boosted volumes in transit and exports from OPEC+ members in the Middle East rose on higher quotas and seasonally weaker regional demand. China’s crude stocks built by 58 mb from January to November while US gas liquids were up by 63 mb. But in stark contrast to the broader picture, crude and refined product stocks in key pricing hubs have seen only marginal builds.

These observed stock changes lag the near 2 mb/d build that our balances imply over the first three quarters of the year, and the 3.7 mb/d average surplus from 4Q25 through 2026. Much of the discrepancy is explained by the diverging trends in the different markets for crude, NGLs and oil products – with deteriorating market transparency further clouding the picture.

The projected global oil surplus in 4Q25 has narrowed since last month’s Report, as the relentless surge in global oil supply came to an abrupt halt. Notably, global oil supply in November was down by 610 kb/d from October and by a whopping 1.5 mb/d from September’s all-time high. OPEC+ accounted for 80% of the decline over the two-month period, reflecting significant unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan, while output from sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela contracted sharply. Russia’s total oil exports fell by roughly 400 kb/d in November to 6.9 mb/d, as buyers assessed the implications and risks associated with more stringent sanctions. As a result, Urals prices plunged by $8.2/bbl to $43.52/bbl, dragging export revenues to their lowest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. By contrast, Iran’s oil loadings have continued apace at around 1.9 mb/d in recent months, but with Chinese independent refiners pausing buying amid exhausted import quotas, Iranian oil on water surged by 40 mb since August. For non-OPEC+ countries, the United States, Brazil and biofuels were the main contributors to the decline. Even so, global oil supply remains on track to rise by 3 mb/d in 2025 and a further 2.4 mb/d in 2026.

By comparison, world oil demand is forecast to increase by 830 kb/d this year and 860 kb/d in 2026. Recent strength in US gas liquids demand has been largely offset by persistent weakness in Europe and accelerated substitution away from oil in power generation in the Middle East. Nevertheless, refinery outages and impending EU restrictions on imports of products derived from Russian crude have combined to propel product cracks and refining margins to 3-year highs in November. While crude and NGL markets remain amply supplied, limited spare refining capacity outside of China available to process it, means we may well see parallel markets persist for some time to come.